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The Big Picture San Diego Blog


June 2013

June 27, 2013

He ought to say "Move over Jon Stewart." Beaulieu had an EDC audience laughing about economic forecasting. Not exactly an easy thing to do. Humor aside, Beaulieu - who serves as principal at ITR Economics - has an impressive record of accurate forecasts - 96.2 percent accuracy looking 12 months into the future. In a fast-paced and animated presentation, Beaulieu gave the crowd what they came for: actionable information about the coming year. He says while GDP has been growing at a tepid pace in 2013 there will be a slowdown in 2014 as industrial production slows. He cautioned not to project 2013 growth rates into 2014. "Focus on efficiencies, training and outsourcing," he said. And as the country grows toward energy independence, Beaulieu sees an increase in manufacturing in the U.S. Longer-term he looks for good years in 2015 – 2018. However, according to Beaulieu’s research, this will be followed by a noticeable recession in 2019.

"The U.S. is fundamentally healthy," he said. "There's more upside than things to worry about." He pointed out that California maps to the U.S. in terms of trends.

Beaulieu mentioned a list of problems including Europe’s financial stability, China’s slowing growth rate and sequestration. But he parried these with quick explanations. Germany and France are committed to the European Union and will exert a strong influence on policy. China will not melt down; the new leadership is taking a longer view and is letting growth slow down as the government sets up for economic stability. Using a chart to contrast projected spending before and after sequestration, Beaulieu made it clear that the delta between the two is small compared to overall spending.

The presentation included some very positive observations about Mexico’s economy. “Their manufacturing index is up, they are producing better goods, and their management is national now – not ex-pat,” Beaulieu said, at one point calling it “Canada to the South.”

You can check out Alan's presentation here.

 

 

June 19, 2013
EDC dashbaordEDC has set out to chart the health of the regional economy through our new dashboard. Statistics on the economy can often be confusing, and are rarely packaged together in one place. We’ve sorted through data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, International Trade Administration and others to find the most compelling and indicative statistics on the San Diego economy. Using simple design principles, the dashboard is our one-stop shop for quick, at-a-glance data about our regional economy.
 
The dashboard provides baseline indicators on 20 different metrics to track the region’s standing among the 25 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas. They range from conventional economic indicators, such as unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product, to less familiar quality of life indicators, like sunshine hours. Along with our Economic Snapshot, launched earlier this quarter, this new comparison format helps us understand how San Diego stacks up with other major metropolitan areas across the nation. 
 
Although the indicators will more or less stay the same, the numbers will be updated as new data becomes available. 
 
Please contact mpc@sandiegobusiness.org if you have any ideas on how to improve the dashboard. 
 
June 14, 2013
By Jennifer Storm
 
Breweries and biotech companies abound. Strong public/private collaboration. A modernized downtown. A breathtaking waterfront. Until I came back from Yokohoma, Japan last week, I thought San Diego was the only place where this existed.
 
I was representing EDC as part of the World Trade Center San Diego’s trade mission to Japan, along with BIOCOM and San Diego Regional Airport Authority, to learn about further strengthening ties between the two regions. Last week, I boarded a plane at Lindbergh Field. Nearly 12 hours later, on one of the most immaculate airplanes I have ever seen, I stepped foot in Narita Airport in Tokyo thanks to Japan Airlines' direct service. A few days and a bus ride later I found myself on the way to Yokohoma, Japan – San Diego’s sister city. 
 
From an economic standpoint, it’s an optimal time to launch flight service between San Diego and Japan. Much like the U.S., Japan is climbing out of recession. As such, they’ve adopted liberal spending policies – known as Abe-nomics –to spur investment and growth, so there is a strong potential for increased foreign direct investment .  
 
YokohamaWhile in Yokohoma, Japanese business leaders exhibited their strong interest in partnering with San Diego companies. We were met with a delegation of 40 business leaders who had ties to San Diego or were interested in creating them. The strong link between Yokohama and San Diego was very apparent- I even met the sole distributor of Stone Beer in Japan! 
 
Traveling to Japan also helped me put things in perspective back home. It’s amazing how two distinct countries could have so much in common, yet also have the opportunity to learn so much from one another. The infrastructure in Japan is outstanding. You can move from one place to another with absolute ease.  This is something we’re working on in San Diego, but admittedly, we’re just not there yet.
 
On the other hand, while touring a biotech company, I had the opportunity to chat with one employee who had previously spent time at the Salk Institute. He noted that although he prefers Japan on a personal level, he misses the creative freedom of working in the U.S.  If he discovered something while in his lab at Salk, he had the freedom to explore that opportunity, in the hopes that it would lead to further research. Although it varies from company to company, he echoed that Japan has more of a regimented work environment. 
 
Although each city has excelled in similar industries, we have a lot of lessons to learn from each other. After all, isn’t that what siblings are for?
 
To learn more about San Diego’s most recent business delegation to Japan, you can read Joe Panetta’s guest column in the U-T.