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The Big Picture San Diego Blog


Will the Fiscal Fog clear? PLNU Chief Economist Lynn Reaser hazards an answer

November 30, 2012

Dr. Lynn Reaser recently delivered the Fermanian Business & Economic Institute Economic Outlook for 2013. With the election behind us but the fiscal cliff still looming, Reaser sided with many observers to predict that the fiscal cliff will either be avoided or – if it is allowed to happen – would not last longer than a few weeks. However, she pointed out that “if there is no political solution, there will be a market solution.” The government has been running annual deficits of more than a trillion dollars for the last four years and that is not sustainable.

Some highlights from the report:

California is currently outperforming the nation in job growth.
California’s economy continues to see job gains in construction, finance, professional and business services, trade, health care, and leisure and hospitality. The state should add about 275,000 new jobs in 2013, following the estimated 260,000 new jobs created in 2012.

In San Diego, job growth should yield a gain of about 29,000 jobs.
The growth will be driven by San Diego’s key economic drivers – the military, technology and tourism – and a revival in the housing market.

The military continues to be the most important economic driver in San Diego’s economy.
Although the region will not totally escape the impact of budget cuts – even under the best case scenario – the most likely outcome for 2013 is for defense dollars coming into the region to hold relatively steady. San Diego’s strengths fit very well with a defense strategy that is 60 percent focused on Asia and the Pacific with an emphasis on cyber security and unmanned aerial systems.

California State Controller John Chiang joined Reaser at the event. Chiang spoke about the challenges he has faced since coming into office in early 2007, including dealing with a cash deficit within seven months of taking over as State Controller. His focus is on determining a competitive tax structure to create a high standard of living while keeping California competitive as a location for business.