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August 15, 2014

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This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower. Click images to enlarge in a new tab/window.

[Unemployment Chart]

HIGHLIGHTS

  • July is a historically misleading month, as state and local public education employees are subject to seasonal layoffs.
  • At 6.6 percent, San Diego’s unemployment rate went up again in July, this time by 0.5 percentage points from June. However, unemployment was down 1.4 points from July 2013.
  • San Diego’s unemployment rate was lower than the California average, but climbed slightly above the U.S. average.
  • The region lost 5,900 jobs from June to July, but added 37,200 jobs from the previous year, the highest year over year job growth recorded in 2014.
  • Construction industry employment in July was up more than 11.3 percent from the previous year.
  • The manufacturing industry added 2,200 jobs since the previous July.
  • Staffing services grew by more than 3.3 percent since last year, more than any other professional or business service subsector.
  • Tourism, innovation, construction and healthcare sectors continued to drive much of the monthly and annual employment growth.

[Unemployment Chart]

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the July 2014 period. San Diego County's unemployment rate went up from June to July, but fell by 1.4 points from this time last year. The unemployment rate in the region remained lower than California's average, but is now barely higher than the U.S. average (0.1 points higher). As stated in last month's report, a summer rise in the unemployment rate is common, as many students and other seasonal workers begin looking for summer employment, but struggle to find employment, driving up the labor force. The labor force increased by 14,800 from June to July, more than one-third of which found employment. The other two-thirds entered the unemployed category during a season when thousands of state and local educators, among other seasonal employees, are temporarily out of work. While there's no certainty in the future, history tells us to expect the unemployment rate to decline steadily from here on out through the end of the year.

[Employment Chart]

When looking at employment growth, we continue to see positive signs of steady growth, despite a misleading seasonal decline. From June to July, the region lost 5,900 jobs. On the surface, this seems negative until you consider that state and local public education contributed 12,800 lost jobs to the region as a result of seasonal layoffs. The private sector actually added 6,800 jobs, a sign of continued economic growth. When looking at overall growth since last July, the region’s economy added 37,200 jobs, a 2.8 percent increase and the largest annual growth recorded in 2014. Meanwhile, the region’s private sector grew by more than 3.1 percent over that period. Over the same period, San Diego experienced a 1.4 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate and a 17 percent drop in people who identified as unemployed, even with a slight increase in labor force participation.

[PST Chart]

San Diego’s traded economies drove much of the region’s employment growth. Professional, scientific and technical services (PST), heavily associated with innovation, added 2,200 jobs since June 2014 and 6,700 jobs since July 2013, for an annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, well above the economy-wide average. PST includes subsectors like scientific research and development, which grew by more than three percent over the year. PST accounted for nearly one-third of the private employment growth from June to July. San Diego’s tourism industry accounted for more than 39 percent of the region’s private employment growth from June to July, adding 2,700 jobs. In addition, the industry added 6,000 jobs since July 2013. Most of the growth is driven by food service businesses, but arts and recreation businesses also grew by six percent since last year. Health care and social services was another major contributor, adding 6,000 jobs since last July.

San Diego’s goods producing industries continued their steady employment growth. Manufacturing added another 200 employees from June to July, for a total of 2,200 jobs added since July 2013. Meanwhile, the construction industry continues to soar, and not just because of summer seasonal growth. The industry added 1,500 jobs from June to July and 7,000 jobs since July 2013, both of which represent more than 20 percent of private employment growth over those periods. 

[MFG Chart]

When going beyond the basic headlines of job loss and unemployment growth, the July employment report was actually full of good signs for San Diego’s economy. Our private sector economy continued to grow at a steady pace of more than three percent year-over-year. Goods-producing industries like construction and manufacturing continued to add jobs, and our innovation sectors grew well above the normal economic pace. While higher unemployment and overall job loss is concerning, it is very clear that these are simply seasonal trends related mostly to annual public education layoffs.

Note: Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how our unemployment rate compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.

July 18, 2014

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This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower. Click images to enlarge in a new tab/window.

[Quote]

HIGHLIGHTS

  • At 6.1 percent, San Diego’s June unemployment rate went up 0.3 percentage points from May, but down 1.7 points from June 2013.
  • San Diego’s unemployment rate was lower than the U.S. and California averages.
  • The region added 9,700 jobs from May to June, and 34,600 jobs from the previous year.
  • Construction industry employment in June was up more than 8.4 percent from the previous year.
  • The manufacturing industry added 2,400 jobs since the previous June.
  • Tourism and Innovation sectors continued to drive much of the monthly and annual employment growth.

[Unemployment Chart]

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the June 2014 period. San Diego’s unemployment rate went up from May to June, but remained lower than California and U.S. averages. Historically, a rise in the unemployment rate is common in June, as many students and other seasonal workers begin looking for summer employment, thus driving up the labor force. The labor force increased by 3,200 from May to June. Meanwhile, total unemployment increased by 3,900, presumably comprised mostly of those entering the labor force. This trend is expected to continue throughout the summer, but is typical both historically and across the country.

[Employment Chart]

When looking at employment growth, we continue to see positive signs of steady growth. From May to June, the region added 9,700 jobs, more than 90 percent of which came from the private sector. When looking at growth since last June, the region’s economy added 34,600 jobs, a 2.6 percent increase. Meanwhile, the region’s private sector grew by more than three percent over that period. Over the same period, San Diego experienced a 1.7 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate and a 19 percent drop in people who identified as unemployed (after adjusting for lower labor force participation).

San Diego’s innovation sectors drove much of the region’s employment growth. Professional, scientific and technical services (PST) added 1,400 jobs since May 2014 and 6,800 jobs since June 2013, for an annual growth rate of 5.5 percent, well above the economy-wide average. PST accounted for more than 20 percent of the annual private employment growth—more than any other sector. The region’s maritime industry also experienced significant growth, with the ship and boat building sector growing 6.8 percent over the year.

[PST Chart]

San Diego’s tourism industry accounted for more than 34 percent of the region’s private employment growth from May to June, adding 3,000 jobs. In addition, the industry added 5,700 jobs since June 2013, with most of that growth coming from the food service industry. Health care and social services was another major contributor. The sector added 1,100 jobs since May and 5,700 jobs since last year.

San Diego’s goods producing industries continued their steady employment growth. Manufacturing employment has been rocky, but steadily grew year-over-year for more than five years. From June 2013 to June 2014, the industry added 2,400 jobs for about a 2.5 percent growth rate. Since June 2010, the industry has added more than 3,600 jobs. Meanwhile, the construction industry continues to soar. From June 2013 to June 2014, the industry added 5,200 jobs, about 8.5 percent growth. 

[MFG Chart]

While again this month’s job growth was led by only a few sectors, it’s important to note that most key industries have grown steadily from the previous year. Additionally, the sectors that drove the employment growth this month are either from our traded economies or are middle-to-high wage jobs in the region. For instance, employees in the PST industry make on average more than $100,000 per year. Manufacturing employees make more than $75,000 per year, more than 40 percent above the region’s average annual wage. High wage jobs help support other sectors in the economy by circulating more dollars throughout the economy. Therefore, consistent growth in these sectors is important for the economy as a whole.

Note: Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how our unemployment rate compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.

June 20, 2014

This post is part of an ongoing monthly blog series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release. Click images to enlarge in a new tab/window.

[Unemployment Chart]

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the May 2014 period. San Diego's unemployment rate continued to decline from April to May, with the rate now down to 5.8 percent, the lowest it has been since May 2008. Unlike the major decline in April (read the full report here), the decline in May came without a drop in the region's labor force. From April to May, 3,000 joined San Diego's labor force, while the region experience a 3,800 person drop in civilian unemployment. Where last month's unemployment rate free fall was somewhat alarming, this month's decline appears to be a good sign for the economy. The region's unemployment rate is now below the national rate and remains well below the California rate.

The region added 5,100 jobs from April to May, 4,800 of which were in the private sector, which is another healthy sign for steady economic growth. Potentially more noteworthy, the region's economy added 29,300 jobs from May 2013 to May 2014, a 2.2 percent increase. The region's private sector grew by 2.5 percent from May 2013 to May 2014, a number roughly in the middle of expectations of the region's leading economists. As of May 2014, the region had 1,342,700 non-farm jobs, more than 82 percent of which were in the private sector.

[Construction Chart]

San Diego's goods producing industries continued their steady employment growth. Construction was up more than 1.5 percent from April to May, adding 1,000 jobs to the region. From May 2013 to May 2014, the construction industry has added 5,100 jobs, an 8.5 percent increase. Manufacturing growth has been a bit slower, but still steadily increasing, which is a great sign for the industry. From April to May, the manufacturing industry added 100 jobs. The industry added 1,700 jobs from May 2013 to May 2014.

As the region ramps up for summer tourism and convention season, the leisure and hospitality industry led most of the growth from April to May, adding 3,900 jobs to the economy, as expected. The industry was also up 3.7 percent from May 2013. Most of this month's growth came from the region's food services and drinking places. Health care and social assistance was the only other significant job creating industry from April to May, adding 1,000 jobs over the month period. 

[PST Chart]

The professional, scientific and technical services sector dropped by 700 jobs from April to May, but these monthly ebbs and flows are common in the industry, and we expect the industry to grow in the near future. From May 2013 to May 2014, the sector added 5,800 jobs, a 4.7 percent increase, which is among the highest growth sectors in San Diego over that period. Other significant growth sectors over the annual period include scientific research and development services sector and the region's retail and wholesale trade sectors. The former added 1,400 jobs while the latter combined to add 3,500 jobs.

While this month's job growth was led by only a few sectors, it's important to note that most key industries have grown steadily from the previous year. Additionally, the sectors that drove the employment growth this month are either from our traded economies, like tourism, or are leading indicators for strong economic growth, like construction and manufacturing. It is also positive to see the region's unemployment rate continue to fall while adding people to the labor force.

Note: Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how our unemployment rate compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.

May 16, 2014

This post is part of an ongoing monthly blog series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release.

2014_04_Unemployment

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the April 2014 period. The big headline in this month’s report is that San Diego County's unemployment rate has dropped nearly a full percentage point, down to 6.0 percent from 6.9 percent in March 2014 and 7.2 percent in April 2013. While this number appears encouraging, it is also noteworthy that the labor force lost 25,000 workers. This is the single largest month-to-month drop in the labor force on record (since 2000), and the lowest the labor force has been since October 2011. Meanwhile, the economy added 2,900 nonfarm jobs from March to April, which makes this month's report particularly perplexing. 

There are several possible explanations for this drastic decline in the labor force. First and most commonly, many long-term unemployed have simply given up looking for work or found work outside of the San Diego region. This most likely explains the 16,000 unemployed who exited the labor force. There may also have been less people who decided to enter the labor force, possibly out of lack of confidence in employment opportunities or lack of relevant skills. However, we also saw 9,000 employed persons leave the labor force, presumably because of a combination of retirements, seasonal exits and moves to other regions. It is not uncommon to see the labor force seasonally decline from March to April, just not to this magnitude. 

2014_04_LF

It appears contradictory that despite this massive labor force decline, the economy actually added jobs. It is worth noting that from February to March, the economy added 12,400 jobs while the labor force lost 11,200 workers. This is likely due to a discrepancy in the surveying, since labor force numbers come from household surveys and job numbers come from surveys of businesses. It is also possible that those who were employed found second jobs. The result is likely a mix of all of these factors, which leaves us with an unusual report for April.

As noted, the economy added 2,900 jobs total from March to April 2014. The private sector outperformed by adding 3,400 jobs in the month, with government job decline accounting for the 500 less jobs. Service providing industries added most of the jobs, while we saw job losses from the goods producing industries like construction and manufacturing.

2014_04_Total

The job picture looks even more promising when compared to last year. From April 2013 to April 2014, the economy added 29,000 jobs, a 2.2 percent increase. The private sector added 26,600 jobs over the year and we saw positive growth in the manufacturing and construction industries, which added 1,100 and 4,300 jobs, respectively. The 4,300 construction jobs added constitutes a 7.2 percent increase over the year. We also saw growth in our important traded economies, with leisure and hospitality adding 4,300 jobs and professional, scientific and technical services adding 6,200 jobs.

We will likely need to wait until future job reports to determine if this unusual report is an anomaly or an indication of larger trends. Historically, we have seen the labor force continue to decline or remain relatively flat from April to May, but with the recent major change in labor force amidst job creation, we may see people coming back to the labor force in the coming months.

Our Economic Indicators Dashboard will show how this compares to other US metros and the US total rate when that information is released in the coming weeks.