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January 20, 2017

Understanding our economy begins with strong data – it’s a phrase people hear us say a lot at San Diego Regional EDC, and for good reason. 
 
Unemployment data, while important, only gives us a piece of the puzzle and many people are still curious as to how it all relates to them...as a business…as a job seeker…and as a San Diego resident.
 
As we kick off 2017, we want to provide comprehensive research that tells a story about our economy. San Diego's Economic Pulse, our new research product launching today, is our way of doing that. In addition to  tracking unemployment, we will also be keeping tabs on new business establishments, job postings and looking at who’s hiring in San Diego.
 
This research wouldn’t be possible without the generous support of EDC board officer Phil Blair and Manpower San Diego.
 
Throughout the year, you will continue to see changes in the way we present our research and talk about data. We would love to hear your thoughts. Join the conversation at @SDregionalEDC or send an email to research@sandiegobusiness.org.
 
January 6, 2017

Now that the holidays are behind us, let’s take a look at some of the data. Early indicators point to another strong holiday shopping season in 2016, beating already lofty forecasts for retail sales1. San Diego’s employment grew by 12,100 in November, as retailers staffed up to meet the surge of shoppers2. But a lot of that hiring is seasonal, and these seasonal boosts are trending down. In fact, growth in retail trade employment has slowed dramatically over the past two years to a mere 0.1 percent.

 

Local employment in retail trade remains 2.8 percent below the pre-recession peak; 11 percent of regional unemployment comes from the industry3. This is because shoppers are increasingly turning to online retailers rather than brick and mortar stores – a trend that has continued to grow since the advent of e-commerce giants like Amazon.com (see chart below).

Traditional retailers are struggling to compete. Last week both Macy’s and Sears announced hundreds of store closures, which will bring thousands of layoffs across the U.S. In San Diego, Macy’s apparel store in Mission Valley will be shutting its doors, leaving 140 people without jobs4.

Changes in technology have had a profound impact on the economy and the composition of jobs. And while the tech boom has brought about gains in productivity, e-commerce and automation are displacing retail workers. These are jobs that are mostly held by women, and where more than half are held by people under the age of 355.

EDC will keep a close eye as these trends develop. Look out for our next monthly employment report on January 20.
 

Sources:

1.      National Retail Federation: https://nrf.com/news/retail-sales-see-solid-gains-first-half-of-holiday-season

2.      San Diego December 2016 LMI Release: http://www.labormarketinfo.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sand$pds.pdf

3.      EMSI; CA LMI; BLS; Infogroup

4.      Macy’s Press Release: http://www.wsj.com/articles/PR-CO-20170104-910412

5.      EMSI; CA LMI; BLS; Infogroup

December 14, 2016

Often hidden behind San Diego’s pristine beaches and thriving regional economy are the  socioeconomic disparities that exist across the county’s 18 cities.

As an organization that aims to support growth of San Diego’s regional economy, EDC understands the importance of including all communities in our work. There is much debate about what the term ‘inclusive economic growth’ means, and it’s something we are working with partners to better define in 2017. In order to understand – and define it – we must know where we currently stand. 

EDC took a closer look at the 18 cities comprising the county. The large discrepancies in poverty rates, income and education across San Diego cities show that while we are part of the largest economies in the world, we have much to improve upon. 

According to the American Community Survey, San Diego’s poverty rate is 13.8 percent – slightly below the national and state rates of 14.7 and 15.3 percent, respectively. However, eight cities in the region have poverty rates above the national average. The region’s educational attainment of 36 percent is above the national and state rates of 30.1 and 31.7, respectively, but 10 regional cities fall below the national rate. Similarly, even when the region’s median household income of $66.2K is over 20 percent higher than the national median household income of $53.7K, six out of the 18 cities fall below the national median.

Highlights from the analysis:

  • National City, with a poverty rate of 24.5 percent, is almost 10 percentage points higher than the national rate of 14.7 percent.
  • El Cajon, with a median household income of $46K, has 49 percent of its total population living below 200 percent of the poverty threshold.
  • Del Mar, with the lowest regional poverty rate of four percent, has the highest median household income at $103K and the highest educational attainment at 72 percent.
  • On the other end of the spectrum, National City has the lowest median household income at $40K (less than 40 percent of Del Mar’s) and the lowest educational attainment at 12 percent (less than 20 percent of Del Mar’s). 
  • The cities of National City, Lemon Grove, Imperial Beach and Escondido have at least 25 percent of their under 18 population living below the federal poverty threshold.
 
The prosperity of San Diego is dependent on the success and growth of all of the region’s cities. EDC is committed to increasing the dialogue around inclusive economic growth and, through data and analysis, shedding light on the region’s disparities. 
 

 

September 30, 2016

Understanding any economy starts with strong data. At EDC, we pour significant resources into research, so we can better understand San Diego's economic strengths, and even more importantly, our weaknesses.

Finding the right data to quantify our economy and understand where San Diego’s stack up with other regions is where it becomes more difficult. Many regions – including San Diego – call themselves innovative, but measuring it becomes more complicated.

In 2012, EDC joined the Global Cities Initiative (GCI), a joint project between Brookings and JPMorgan Chase, which helps metropolitan leaders grow their regional economies by strengthening international connections and competitiveness. Conducting independent research has been a cornerstone of the GCI since its launch.

This week, EDC/World Trade Center San Diego staff traveled to Washington, D.C. to take part in the Brookings Global Cities Summit – a culmination of five years of research and exchanges to help metros grow their economy.

Based on five years of research, Redefining Global Cities," the latest Brookings report, found that there were seven types of global cities. 

There are the Global Giants – regions like London, New York and Paris; these cities are financial hubs and serve as the control center for the world’s largest economies. Then there are the American Middleweights (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Phoenix, Saint Louis, etc.) and the International Middleweights (Frankfurt, Munich, Rome, Barcelona, Toronto, etc.): connected and important mid-sized cities where post-recession growth has lagged. And then there are the Knowledge Capitals – 19 mid-sized cities throughout the U.S. and Europe that are home to talented workforces and elite research universities.

San Diego is in good company as a Knowledge Capital with Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Stockholm, Zurich and others.

Turns out, when it comes to patent intensity, San Diego is second out of 123 global cities. When we say that San Diego is innovative, it’s not just boosterism – we have the data to back it up.

As a Knowledge Capital, San Diego may attract a highly-educated workforce and high-levels of entrepreneurship, but one area where it lags is foreign direct investment. Nearly 98 percent of our economic growth is going to come from growing small and medium-sized enterprises and startups already present in the region. San Diego’s participation in the Global Cities Initiative is not just an opportunity to connect with likeminded cities; it’s an opportunity to connect with and better understand our customers. After all, our SMEs will not reach peak growth rates without expanding their businesses and finding customers outside the region. As a response to this insight, we founded the MetroConnect Initiative, a comprehensive export assistance program now in its second year.  

As a region, we’re proud to be known as a Knowledge Capital, but our work is still cut out for us. By connecting with other GCI cities, we can expedite our economic growth through careful understanding and analysis of best practices. And through insightful data and programs like MetroConnect, we’re hopeful that we’re well on our way.

August 5, 2016

This week, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker and Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf joined a panel of local business leaders from Solar Turbines, Solatube and Northrop Grumman to unveil UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy’s new study on the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to the nation and San Diego. The summary, “San Diego and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” produced by World Trade Center San Diego, explains how San Diego’s unique economic assets position the region to realize relatively greater benefits from TPP than the U.S. as a whole.

TPP, an international trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration and 11 other Pacific Rim countries, seeks to lower trade barriers for exporters and increase intellectual property protections for multinational companies.

San Diego’s prime location on the edge of the Pacific Rim, as well its specialization in advanced manufacturing and other key industries tied to the innovation economy – including scientific R&D, engineering, software and cybersecurity – position the region to benefit disproportionately from TPP.

Key findings include:

  • When compared to other TPP member countries, the U.S. has one of the least restrictive markets – it is easier for foreign markets to export to the U.S. than it is for U.S. companies to send their products abroad.
  • More than 97 percent of San Diego’s exports – primarily high-value advanced manufacturing products – are sold in TPP markets and are collectively worth $22 billion.
  • Enhanced IP protections would benefit San Diego’s innovation economy; San Diego is the third most patent intensive region in the world and five times more specialized in scientific R&D than the nation as a whole.
  • Increased export growth could produce real rising wages for 150,000 high-wage jobs in the region’s manufacturing and innovation sectors.
  • San Diego’s service-providing sector – generally non-traded industries accounting for 87 percent of total employment – is largely insulated from foreign competition. 
July 22, 2016

Phil Blair

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“While June's unemployment rate climbed – a typical trend as educational workers tend to lose employment during summer  key sectors like leisure and hospitality, PST and PBS all experienced strong year-over-year growth. San Diego's unemployment rate continues to remains lower than statewide unemployment.”
Phil Blair, Executive Officer
Manpower San Diego


This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for June in addition to revised data for May 2016. This month’s data shows that San Diego's economy has slowed during the summer months; unemployment experienced an increase while total regional employment grew more slowly than previous months.  

June’s unemployment rate climbed back to 5.1 percent for the first time since October 2015; up 0.9 percentage points from a revised 4.2 percent in May. The unemployment rate is down 0.1 points from the previous year. San Diego’s unemployment rate continues to remain lower than statewide unemployment and is now on par with national unemployment rates of 5.7 and 5.1 percent, respectively.

San Diego’s rate rose in part due to an increase in the labor force. A familiar trend in the region this time of year as many public and private seasonal educational workers tend to lose employment during the summer months. Education accounted for nearly 1,000 jobs lost during May and June combined. Although a seasonal uptick in unemployment is common during the summer, the increase of 0.9 percentage points is significantly higher than seen in recent years. Additional job losses in finance and insurance in addition to health care and social assistance also contributed to the increase in unemployment.

Total nonfarm employment increased steadily since May, adding 8,000 jobs. More importantly, year-over-year nonfarm employment went up by 37,600, a 2.7 percent increase. The private sector drove employment growth in June, as private employment accounted for nearly 83.2 percent, or an increase of 31,300 jobs, of all employment growth over the year. The total private sector grew by 2.7 percent year-over-year.

 At the height of summer and peak tourism season, the region’s leisure and hospitality industry was the largest driver of regional employment growth, adding 5,400 jobs since May. Leisure and hospitality experienced strong year-over-year growth, adding 7,800 jobs, a 4.2 per

cent increase over the previous year, and contributing to 24.9 percent of private sector growth.

Professional, scientific and technical services (PST), a subset of professional and business services (PBS) and strongly associated with the region’s innovation economy, accounted for over 11.5 percent of private sector growth, adding 1,000 jobs since May.

While the June report released today showed increased unemployment in the region’s economy, which is in line with familiar seasonal trends, overall job growth was solid. Unemployment remains well below the state and year-over growth in the region was spread out across a variety of base sectors.

This report was performed with assistance from the CBRE research team in San Diego.

 

June 23, 2016

In 2012, then FBI Director Robert Mueller stood up at a cybersecurity conference and said, “There are two types of companies- those who have been hacked and those that will be.”

Whether you’re a Fortune 500 company, military contractor, genomics company or a neighborhood restaurant, cybersecurity has become ubiquitous for all businesses. According to Cybersecurity Ventures, an estimated $1 trillion will be spent on cybersecurity from 2017 to 2021. These global businesses may have San Diego – or rather one of its 100 plus cyber firms – to thank for that.

A new study released this week by San Diego Cyber Center of Excellence, with research by San Diego Regional EDC, provided additional insights on the impact of San Diego’s cyber economy.  In total, 104 core cyber firms employ 4,230 people in the region. SPAWAR, the Navy’s cybersecurity and R&D arm, employs an additional 3,390 in the cyber industry.

According to the study, San Diego’s cybersecurity industry generates more than $1.9 billion in GDP and impacts 16,580 jobs annually – equivalent to hosting four Super Bowls or 14 Comic-Cons each year – and has grown by more than 26 percent in just two years, since EDC’s last cyber study.

“San Diego is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the ever-growing global demand for cybersecurity products and security,” said San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer. “This study shows how the convergence of the innovation economy, education and research, and department of defense presence creates a fertile ecosystem for companies and talent.”

San Diego, with its strong concentration of military personnel, has a growing a base of software jobs and university specializations, which benefits from a rich pool of cybersecurity talent. It’s one of the reasons companies such as ESET and iboss have set up shop here. More than 51,000 technology specialists call San Diego home and work in a variety of cybersecurity-related occupations. Employers surveyed expect their cybersecurity workforce to grow by 13 percent in the next year compared to projected 2 percent overall regional job growth.  

Read the full study here.

May 5, 2016

With over 3.2 million people and nearly 1.5 million jobs in the San Diego region today, San Diego’s extensive network of highways, roads, rail lines and public transit serves as the backbone of our economy. Essential for the movement of people and goods in and around the region, transportation infrastructure strengthens the regional economy and promotes future economic growth. Expansions and enhancements to roads, highways and public transit reduce congestion, decrease travel times and increase business productivity and overall economic competitiveness.

First approved by voters in 1988, TransNet – the region’s half-cent sales tax – has funded a variety of local transportation projects including roads, highway, public transit and active transportation. Since its inception, nearly $3.3 billion in funds collected by TransNet have been leveraged with nearly $10 billion more from federal, state and local funding sources to deliver more than 650 projects throughout the region. EDC released an economic impact analysis of TransNet, which reveals how investments in transportation over the last 25 years have impacted San Diego’s economy.

Key findings:

  • TransNet has a $20 billion economic impact.
  • 650 projects have been completed to date, including 6,500 acres preserved as open space.
  • Every $1 collected in TransNet taxes results in a $1.70 increase in the region’s GDP.
  • TransNet supports 5,300 jobs annually and has contributed $9 billion in total local wages.
  • Regional benefits from infrastructure investment include 12.4 million hours of commute time savings and $500 million in travel time savings annually.  

Read the analysis here.

March 4, 2016

Phil Blair

Download a printable version
 

“The local economy picked up steam in January after slowing a bit toward the end of 2015 – a typical trend as seasonal, holiday jobs phase out. Key sectors like manufacturing, construction, engineering, and health care all posted outstanding figures this month. These trends are also reflected in the demand for staffing services, which posted seven percent growth in employment in January.”
Phil Blair, Executive Officer
Manpower San Diego


This post is part of an ongoing monthly series dedicated to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) monthly employment release and is brought to you by Manpower

 

The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released statewide county employment data today for the January 2016 period, as well as revisions for 2015. This month’s data shows that San Diego's labor market fundamentals remained strong, as unemployment continued to fall amid solid and steady job growth.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in January, the lowest since September 2007. The rate is down 0.1 points from the revised December number and 1.2 points from the previous year. The San Diego rate remained much lower than the statewide unemployment rate of 5.8 percent. The national unemployment rate rose substantially to 5.3 percent, well above the San Diego rate. The rate dropped in part due to a typical seasonal decline in the labor force from December to January, but the annual labor force increased by 6,100, with 16,900 fewer unemployed persons since January 2015.

Employment dropped back below 1.4 million in January, but seasonal declines are typical after the holiday season. More importantly, year-over-year employment went up by 38,200, a 2.8 percent increase. San Diego’s growth rate was again much higher than the 1.9 percent national rate. While the year-over-year growth slowed as 2015 progressed, the growth rate climbed again in January, which is a positive sign of momentum in the region.

The private sector drove employment growth in January, as private employment accounted for 90.3 percent of all employment growth over the year. The total private sector grew by 3.1 percent year-over-year, out-pacing the private U.S. growth rate of 2.2 percent.

Private growth was driven largely by service providers, but goods producers experienced another strong month. Manufacturers and construction companies drove 24.0 percent of private job growth in January. The two industries added a combined 8,300 jobs in January. The manufacturing industry in particular had a very strong month, posting 3.4 percent growth, compared to the national growth rate of 0.4 percent in the industry. Revisions showed that 2015 was an even stronger year than previously understood, with an annual 2015 growth average of 3.7 percent.


Professional, scientific, and technical (PST) services, which is strongly associated with the region’s innovation economy, slowed substantially in January, but it is unclear if there are complications with the EDD revision. Prior to the revision, the industry showed6.6 percent growth in 2015. With revisions, that growth is only 1.9 percent. It is unclear if job growth previously categorized as PST was moved to another sector like manufacturing or management, as national revised figures don't show the same dramatic shift. Architecture and engineering, a subset of PST services, showed solid growth of 5.1 percent despite the overall PST figure.

Other key drivers for growth included the region’s healthcare sector, which added 7,100 jobs and accounted for roughly one fifth of the region’s private job growth in January. Tourism experienced strong year-over-year growth, adding 5,900 jobs and contributing to 17.1 percent of growth.

In all, the January report released today showed many continued positive signs for San Diego's economy. The dramatic adjustment to PST employment raises some questions, and we will have to wait and see what was behind this revision by EDD. Otherwise, the region posted another month of solid yearly job growth, in large part due to the booming manufacturing and construction industries. Unemployment fell despite statewide and nationwide increases, and growth was spread out across a variety of key high-wage and base sectors in the region.

This report was performed with assistance from the CBRE research team in San Diego.

 

March 3, 2016

By Matt Sanford, director of economic development

As I fly over Palmdale and glance down at one of the last large aerospace manufacturing facilities in the Southern California, it is a reminder that the aerospace industry as a whole is experiencing dramatic change. Some of the large industrial centers still exist and are highlights of the heritage of the industry. But the landscape as a whole is changing.
 
San Diego is the place where Charles Lindbergh built the Spirit of St Louis and since then, Southern California has been at the forefront of aerospace innovation. Today, it continues to be a hub for innovators looking to push the envelope. But instead of erecting more large manufacturing facilities, we will see this innovation in entrepreneurs and startups, in tech companies that are entering the industry, and in legacy industry leaders who are pioneering new technologies, and driving convergence with other tech sectors to create new capabilities.
 
Now, we are creating new sensors and systems to push the envelope even further. The James Webb Space Telescope being developed by Northrop Grumman in El Segundo will give us the most comprehensive look at the universe to date. The technology developed at ViaSat in Carlsbad is creating the fastest satellite broadband available to the public. San Diego is also home to Brain Corporation, 5D Robotics and the Center of Excellence for Northrop Grumman’s unmanned systems division. These companies, among others, are creating systems that will work autonomously to take on the dull, dirty and dangerous tasks that put people, both services members and private citizens, at risk.
 
So how do we quantify this activity? Through a report by the Los Angeles County EDC and San Diego Regional EDC covering the eight county Southern California region, we learned there are over 85,000 direct jobs in our aerospace industry. The total employment impact is nearly a quarter million people and it’s growing. In San Diego County alone, the industry has grown by 66.7 percent since 2004. 
 
The rich heritage of the industry has brought companies and talent to Southern California and San Diego to create a formidable ecosystem. But there are challenges. As we move forward, we must continue to support our aerospace manufacturers. We must also be proactive in identifying and supporting new sectors by aligning our universities to stay at the forefront of research and innovation, and working with the state to refute the claims that aerospace is a dying industry. Finally, we must stay at the forefront of the convergence between tech and aerospace, as it will continue to be where Southern California and San Diego can lead the industry. 
 
Even with new large contracts to develop platforms like the Long Range Strike Bomber, we must realize that as a percentage, those in the industry will be fewer on the factory floor, and more in labs and behind computers.
 
It is an exciting time for the aerospace industry in Southern California. The ecosystem is changing rapidly. It brings with it opportunity for seemingly endless growth and development of new technologies.
 
For more information, see the full study and fact sh eet.