San Diego’s Economic Pulse: June 2020

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers May 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Unemployment Unchanged

The region’s unemployment rate was 15.0 percent in May, unchanged from a revised 15.0 percent in April, and far above the year-ago estimate of 2.8 percent. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than the state unemployment rate of 15.9 percent, but higher than the national unemployment rate of 13.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted) during the same time period, respectively. Read more about EDC’s unemployment analysis.

Employment Bouncing Back

Between April 2020 and May 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego increased from a revised 1,290,800 to 1,309,000, a gain of 18,200 jobs. Overall, from February when the pandemic first began to May 2020, San Diego employment has declined by 205,500 jobs. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 2.9 million in May from the month prior, and payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in the U.S. during the same time period.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego nonfarm employment declined by 195,800 jobs or 13.0 percent. In California, total nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million jobs, or 13.0 percent, from May 2019 to May 2020 compared to the U.S. annual loss of 17.7 million jobs, or 11.7 percent.

Sector Employment Slowly Returns

The leisure and hospitality industry accounted for the largest monthly gains, adding 7,900 jobs in May, primarily concentrated in food services and drinking places as restaurants began to reopen. While it is encouraging that the food services and drinking places sector has added jobs the last month, the industry has 40 percent fewer jobs compared to a year ago.

Educational and health services increased employment this month by 5,500 jobs, concentrated by 6,300 positions in health care and social assistance. Non-emergency health services added 5,800 of those positions, which accounts for roughly half of the jobs lost between March and April.

Construction followed with an additional 3,500 positions, and business/professional services recovered 2,500 of the 11,000 jobs lost between March and April. The bulk of the job gains in professional services came from administrative services, which includes temp help and employment services. This is particularly encouraging, as these types of jobs tend to become permanent over time and is an indicator of job growth in the relatively near future.

The accommodation industry continues to struggle with a monthly decline of 1,900 jobs, or 14 percent, in May. Accommodation industry employment has declined by nearly 64 percent from May 2019 to May 2020. While San Diego employment in accommodation is larger than many other regions, the job losses are in line with both San Francisco and Los Angeles Counties.

While job losses were not as extreme this month, clothing stores employment is about half its level from a year ago.

The largest monthly employment decline was in government, with a loss of 4,700 jobs, concentrated in state government — particularly state government education, which includes public colleges —and consistent with national trends.

As San Diego’s economy continues to reopen, current labor market trends provide a glimpse of the long-term effects on the economy. While some industries have brought back jobs, others are slower to recover. And while the May data brings some good news, it will take some time to recover from unprecedented levels of unemployment.

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: May 2020

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers April 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Unemployment Skyrockets

The region’s unemployment rate was 15.0 percent in April, up from a revised 4.2 percent in March 2020, and above the year-ago estimate of 2.9 percent. During the 2009 recession, unemployment peaked at 11.1 percent in January 2010 and again in July 2010. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than the state unemployment rate of 16.1 percent, but higher than the national unemployment rate of 14.4 percent during the same time period, respectively.

Employment Declines More than the Great Recession

Between March 2020 and April 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego decreased from 1,494,000 to 1,299,400, a loss of 195,000 jobs. For context, during the 2009 recession, the largest monthly non-seasonal job loss in San Diego was between June 2009 and July 2009, with 22,900 jobs lost, and the local economy lost a total of 119,000 jobs from Dec 2007 to Jan 2010. Put differently, more than 25 months of job losses occurred in San Diego in April alone because of COVID19. The month-over-month job losses are consistent with record-breaking state and national trends. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million in April from the month prior, and payroll employment declined by 20.5 million in the U.S. during the same time period.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, over 78 percent of all unemployed Americans in April reported being “on temporary layoff.” On the surface, this could mean that a sizable portion of those laid off will be able to get back to work in relatively short order. However, with many retail and food service businesses reopening at only partial capacity, the return to work may be longer than expected, and some who reported being on temporary layoff may ultimately be laid off permanently.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego nonfarm employment contracted by 199,200 jobs or 13.3 percent. In California, total nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million jobs, or 13.4 percent, from April 2019 to April 2020 compared to the U.S. annual loss of 19.4 million jobs, or 12.9 percent.

Sector Employment Suffers

Every one of San Diego’s 11 industry sectors lost jobs in April. Leisure and hospitality accounted for the lion’s share, shedding 96,200 payroll positions, or nearly 50 percent of its workforce. Within the leisure and hospitality sector, accommodation and food services lost 80,700 jobs, or 49 percent. California similarly saw widespread layoffs. Similar to San Diego, in California, leisure and hospitality posted the largest contraction at 866,200, which was more than double that of trade, transportation, and utilities, which gave up 388,700 payroll positions. This was also true nationally: job losses were spread across every industry, but cuts were especially severe in leisure & hospitality, which gave up some 7.7 million positions.

Retailers reduced employment by 20,300, or 14.3 percent in April, with the largest employment decreases in clothing and department stores. SANDAG estimates a potential loss of taxable retail sales of 53 percent in May, assuming a 3-month disruption from COVID19. This implies more retail job cuts could be on the way in the May employment report.

Understanding the ongoing economic damage caused by COVID19 can be daunting, as the numbers involved are often so far out of scale with the rest of historical data that it is difficult to even contextualize what they mean. Overall, COVID19 has accelerated unemployment and job losses at a level unheard of.

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: April 2020

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This analysis covers March 2020 and reflects some—but not all—of the early effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. The San Diego jobs report estimates conditions in the job market as of the week of March 12. However, many of the actions taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus took place during the second half of the month, so the full extent of the impacts to the labor market are not apparent in the most recent report.

EDC’s COVID-19 Business Survey Analysis shows that the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on San Diego’s economy are severe, concentrated, and disproportionally affect small businesses and low wage workers. These results are corroborated by skyrocketing initial claims for unemployment insurance, both nationally and in California. While this is not fully reflected in the March employment data, it implies a dismal April jobs report should be expected along with downward revisions to the advance March estimates.

A Developing Picture

The region’s unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in March 2020, up from a revised 3.2 percent in February 2020, and above the year-ago estimate of 3.5 percent. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 5.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively. According to EDC’s survey of businesses, 75 percent of San Diego businesses plan to furlough employees, lay off employees, temporarily shut down operations, or permanently close. As firms decrease their workforce, unemployment insurance claims have spiked to historically unprecedented levels.

Between February 2020 and March 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego decreased from 1,514,500 to 1,504,400, a loss of 10,100 jobs. The month-over-month job losses are consistent with state and national trends. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 252,000 from 19,516,000 to 19,264,000 in March from the month prior, and payroll employment declined by 701,000 in the US during the same time period. While the numbers have been eye-opening, it is likely that the data will continue to deteriorate substantially in the April and May job reports before any turnaround takes hold.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance have skyrocketed across the US in recent weeks. New filings for unemployment in California topped a million for the week ending March 28, eclipsing the previous record of 115,000 claims before the COVID-19 outbreak. Initial claims “eased” somewhat to 918,000 in the week ending April 4 and to 661,000 for the week of April 11. According to EDC’s survey of businesses, 388 employers plan to eliminate 14,844 jobs; nearly 69 percent of their workforce. Nearly all expect those reductions to happen immediately or within the next 30 days.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego added 13,000 new payroll jobs or 0.9 percent. Year-over-year employment gains in San Diego are consistent with, both, the state and national employment growth rates of 0.9 percent and one percent, respectively.

Unexpected Immediate Impacts

Surprisingly, professional and business services and construction accounted for the bulk of job losses, shedding 3,700 and 3,400 payroll positions respectively. Similar to the national trend, government led all industry sectors in month-over-month San Diego job gains, adding 1,200.

The industries in San Diego most vulnerable to the effects of policies aimed at containing the spread of the virus include arts, entertainment, and recreation, accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, and retail. Together, these industries accounted for about one in four local jobs and $18.5 billion in salaries and wages in 2019. Given the deep roots of those industries in the local economy, the ripple effects of job losses are expected to be significant: for every 1,000 jobs lost in retail, wholesale, the arts, or food services, an estimated 500 jobs would be lost in other industries across San Diego.

Between February 2020 and March 2020, employment in these most vulnerable industries dropped by 600, or 0.2 percent. While wholesale trade, retail trade, and accommodation and food services recorded job losses, the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry reported a small gain of 100. Job cuts in these industries were concentrated in wholesale trade, which let go 1,100, or 2.3 percent, of its workers.

These reductions (0.2 percent) are less severe than both the state and national employment declines of 1.6 percent and 1.3 (0.7 unadjusted) percent, suggesting the full scale of the impacts is yet to be captured by the data. Looking at food services, for example, if San Diego experienced the same monthly decline in sales as the US (26.5 percent), we should have seen sales drop by approximately $32 million and more than 3,200 jobs lost in those industries alone. Our survey of San Diego businesses shows they anticipate even larger revenue declines than what is contained in the US retail sales report. The bottom line is that the full extent of the damage incurred by the local job market is unlikely to be revealed for at least several months.

Please remember that EDC is here to help during these extraordinarily difficult times and that we are all stronger together. For general COVID-19 recovery resources and information, please view this page.

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: February 2020

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. Each year, the Labor Market Information Division (LMID), in cooperation with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), revises historical industry employment, labor force, and hours and earnings estimates. The revision process, also called “benchmarking,” produces updates to the data sets used to generate the monthly estimates.

This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers 2019 benchmarking updates and data from January 2020. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in January 2020, up from a revised 2.8 percent in December 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.8 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 4.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively
  • Between December 2019 and January 2020, total nonfarm employment decreased from 1,525,200 to 1,501,700, losing 23,500 jobs
  • Between January 2019 and January 2020, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,482,000 to 1,501,700, adding 19,700 jobs
  • Professional and business services led the year-over-year gain, adding 8,600 jobs
  • Benchmark revisions show that the region experienced slower employment growth in 2019, ending the year with 15,500 fewer jobs than originally estimated

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: November 2019

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers October 2019. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

This report is sponsored by Manpower San Diego.

San Diego Economic Pulse – November 2019 from San Diego Regional EDC on Vimeo.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 2.8 percent in October, up from a revised 2.7 percent in September 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.2 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively
  • Between September 2019 and October 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,516,200 to 1,525,000, adding 9,400 jobs
  • Between October 2018 and October 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,495,400 to 1,525,600, adding 30,200 jobs
  • Between October 2018 and October 2019, government led the year-over gain, adding 8,200 jobs and mostly driven by growth in local government (up 5,100)

San Diego Economic Pulse – September 2019

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers August 2019. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

This report is sponsored by Manpower San Diego.

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in August, down from a revised 3.6 percent in July 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.5 percent..
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 4.2 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively
  • Construction (up 2,900) added the largest number of jobs over the month, with gains centered in speciality trade contractors(up 1,800)
  • Between August 2018 and August 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,485,300 to 1,512,700, adding 27,400 jobs.
  • Government (up 8,400) followed by professional & business services(up 6,600) led job growth during the past year