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San Diego’s Economic Pulse: June 2020

By San Diego Regional EDC,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers May 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Unemployment Unchanged

The region’s unemployment rate was 15.0 percent in May, unchanged from a revised 15.0 percent in April, and far above the year-ago estimate of 2.8 percent. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than the state unemployment rate of 15.9 percent, but higher than the national unemployment rate of 13.0 percent (not seasonally adjusted) during the same time period, respectively. Read more about EDC’s unemployment analysis.

Employment Bouncing Back

Between April 2020 and May 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego increased from a revised 1,290,800 to 1,309,000, a gain of 18,200 jobs. Overall, from February when the pandemic first began to May 2020, San Diego employment has declined by 205,500 jobs. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 2.9 million in May from the month prior, and payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in the U.S. during the same time period.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego nonfarm employment declined by 195,800 jobs or 13.0 percent. In California, total nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million jobs, or 13.0 percent, from May 2019 to May 2020 compared to the U.S. annual loss of 17.7 million jobs, or 11.7 percent.

Sector Employment Slowly Returns

The leisure and hospitality industry accounted for the largest monthly gains, adding 7,900 jobs in May, primarily concentrated in food services and drinking places as restaurants began to reopen. While it is encouraging that the food services and drinking places sector has added jobs the last month, the industry has 40 percent fewer jobs compared to a year ago.

Educational and health services increased employment this month by 5,500 jobs, concentrated by 6,300 positions in health care and social assistance. Non-emergency health services added 5,800 of those positions, which accounts for roughly half of the jobs lost between March and April.

Construction followed with an additional 3,500 positions, and business/professional services recovered 2,500 of the 11,000 jobs lost between March and April. The bulk of the job gains in professional services came from administrative services, which includes temp help and employment services. This is particularly encouraging, as these types of jobs tend to become permanent over time and is an indicator of job growth in the relatively near future.

The accommodation industry continues to struggle with a monthly decline of 1,900 jobs, or 14 percent, in May. Accommodation industry employment has declined by nearly 64 percent from May 2019 to May 2020. While San Diego employment in accommodation is larger than many other regions, the job losses are in line with both San Francisco and Los Angeles Counties.

While job losses were not as extreme this month, clothing stores employment is about half its level from a year ago.

The largest monthly employment decline was in government, with a loss of 4,700 jobs, concentrated in state government — particularly state government education, which includes public colleges —and consistent with national trends.

As San Diego’s economy continues to reopen, current labor market trends provide a glimpse of the long-term effects on the economy. While some industries have brought back jobs, others are slower to recover. And while the May data brings some good news, it will take some time to recover from unprecedented levels of unemployment.

Economy in crisis: SD jobs report for May might not be as bad as initially feared

By Nate Kelley,
  • EDC projects SD unemployment to peak at around 16 percent in May, far less than externally produced estimates of 30 percent or more
  • While the U.S. recovered jobs in May, gains are most likely concentrated in states and cities that have reopened ahead of California
  • SD job growth will resume in the Summer months but could level off in the Fall until a vaccine is widely available

May’s employment picture might not be as bad as initially feared. A couple of weeks ago, we published a report that stated the May job cuts in San Diego could potentially be on par with the extraordinary losses suffered in April’s employment report. Those numbers were based on estimates for local retail sales along with city and county unemployment rates that were produced externally. While the estimates for more than a 50 percent decline in retail sales from February to May don’t seem unreasonable, it appears that the May unemployment rate projection of 30 percent or higher is well above the official rate to be reported by the Labor Department on June 19.

OUTLOOK IMPROVES ON INCOMING DATA

San Diego unemployment correlates closely with California continuing unemployment insurance (“UI”) claims. Continuing UI claims in California averaged about 2.9 million in May—above the 2.6 million registered in April, but certainly not enough to double unemployment across the state, including San Diego. EDC estimates that May unemployment in the region will be reported at closer to 16 percent, up from 15 percent in April and nearly half the rate estimated earlier during the pandemic.

EDC’s much lower unemployment projection is supported by incoming state and national data. For instance, the U.S. unemployment rate was reported as 13.3 percent in May, down from 14.7 percent in April. San Diego unemployment has differed from the national rate at times, but the probability that San Diego unemployment would have settled at a level at or above 30 percent given the lower national figure is, in essence, a statistical impossibility.

Additionally, the ADP national employment report showed that small business job losses slowed considerably in May from April. Small businesses employ 45 percent of the San Diego workforce, compared with just 29 percent nationally, suggesting that layoffs have abated for a wider swath of the local labor force than for the U.S. as a whole.

Taken together, the May jobs report for San Diego is anticipated to show an additional 10,000 to 15,000 job losses. While it would have been unfathomable to cheer on such a report just a few months ago, it is far less than the 150,000 to 175,000 job cuts implied by the 30 percent unemployment estimates produced earlier and also strongly suggests that the worst of the COVID slowdown has passed.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

The May job cuts projected by EDC for San Diego may seem to contradict the official U.S. job figures released last Friday that showed 2.5 million job gains and a lower unemployment rate. However, the gains in the national report almost certainly reflect jobs that were recovered in states and cities that reopened ahead of California. San Diego has moved to reopen somewhat faster than other areas of the state. Even so, it would be surprising if local job growth is registered ahead of the June employment report, because the May employment figures were estimated on data received during the week of May 12, before local businesses began to reopen.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Barring a second wave of COVID-19, employment in San Diego is expected to start climbing again in June, but the region is unlikely to recoup the jobs lost since February for quite some time. Businesses will call back a sizable portion of their workers as they reopen, but a return to normal for the local job market won’t take hold until after a vaccine has been made widely available. After an initial bump in the summer months, job growth will likely continue at a much more measured pace until consumers begin to feel comfortable venturing out into larger crowds and businesses can once again operate at full capacity—something that most likely will not happen before 2021.

For more COVID-19 recovery resources and information, please visit this page.

Regardless of how this all plays out, EDC is here to help. You can use the button below to request our assistance with finding information, applying to relief programs, and more.

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San Diego’s Economic Pulse: May 2020

By EDC Research Team,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers April 2020 and reflects some effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Unemployment Skyrockets

The region’s unemployment rate was 15.0 percent in April, up from a revised 4.2 percent in March 2020, and above the year-ago estimate of 2.9 percent. During the 2009 recession, unemployment peaked at 11.1 percent in January 2010 and again in July 2010. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than the state unemployment rate of 16.1 percent, but higher than the national unemployment rate of 14.4 percent during the same time period, respectively.

Employment Declines More than the Great Recession

Between March 2020 and April 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego decreased from 1,494,000 to 1,299,400, a loss of 195,000 jobs. For context, during the 2009 recession, the largest monthly non-seasonal job loss in San Diego was between June 2009 and July 2009, with 22,900 jobs lost, and the local economy lost a total of 119,000 jobs from Dec 2007 to Jan 2010. Put differently, more than 25 months of job losses occurred in San Diego in April alone because of COVID19. The month-over-month job losses are consistent with record-breaking state and national trends. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million in April from the month prior, and payroll employment declined by 20.5 million in the U.S. during the same time period.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, over 78 percent of all unemployed Americans in April reported being “on temporary layoff.” On the surface, this could mean that a sizable portion of those laid off will be able to get back to work in relatively short order. However, with many retail and food service businesses reopening at only partial capacity, the return to work may be longer than expected, and some who reported being on temporary layoff may ultimately be laid off permanently.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego nonfarm employment contracted by 199,200 jobs or 13.3 percent. In California, total nonfarm employment decreased by 2.3 million jobs, or 13.4 percent, from April 2019 to April 2020 compared to the U.S. annual loss of 19.4 million jobs, or 12.9 percent.

Sector Employment Suffers

Every one of San Diego’s 11 industry sectors lost jobs in April. Leisure and hospitality accounted for the lion’s share, shedding 96,200 payroll positions, or nearly 50 percent of its workforce. Within the leisure and hospitality sector, accommodation and food services lost 80,700 jobs, or 49 percent. California similarly saw widespread layoffs. Similar to San Diego, in California, leisure and hospitality posted the largest contraction at 866,200, which was more than double that of trade, transportation, and utilities, which gave up 388,700 payroll positions. This was also true nationally: job losses were spread across every industry, but cuts were especially severe in leisure & hospitality, which gave up some 7.7 million positions.

Retailers reduced employment by 20,300, or 14.3 percent in April, with the largest employment decreases in clothing and department stores. SANDAG estimates a potential loss of taxable retail sales of 53 percent in May, assuming a 3-month disruption from COVID19. This implies more retail job cuts could be on the way in the May employment report.

Understanding the ongoing economic damage caused by COVID19 can be daunting, as the numbers involved are often so far out of scale with the rest of historical data that it is difficult to even contextualize what they mean. Overall, COVID19 has accelerated unemployment and job losses at a level unheard of.

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: April 2020

By EDC Research Team,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This analysis covers March 2020 and reflects some—but not all—of the early effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the labor market. The San Diego jobs report estimates conditions in the job market as of the week of March 12. However, many of the actions taken to slow the spread of the coronavirus took place during the second half of the month, so the full extent of the impacts to the labor market are not apparent in the most recent report.

EDC’s COVID-19 Business Survey Analysis shows that the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on San Diego’s economy are severe, concentrated, and disproportionally affect small businesses and low wage workers. These results are corroborated by skyrocketing initial claims for unemployment insurance, both nationally and in California. While this is not fully reflected in the March employment data, it implies a dismal April jobs report should be expected along with downward revisions to the advance March estimates.

A Developing Picture

The region’s unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in March 2020, up from a revised 3.2 percent in February 2020, and above the year-ago estimate of 3.5 percent. The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 5.6 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively. According to EDC’s survey of businesses, 75 percent of San Diego businesses plan to furlough employees, lay off employees, temporarily shut down operations, or permanently close. As firms decrease their workforce, unemployment insurance claims have spiked to historically unprecedented levels.

Between February 2020 and March 2020, total nonfarm employment in San Diego decreased from 1,514,500 to 1,504,400, a loss of 10,100 jobs. The month-over-month job losses are consistent with state and national trends. In California, nonfarm employment decreased by 252,000 from 19,516,000 to 19,264,000 in March from the month prior, and payroll employment declined by 701,000 in the US during the same time period. While the numbers have been eye-opening, it is likely that the data will continue to deteriorate substantially in the April and May job reports before any turnaround takes hold.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance have skyrocketed across the US in recent weeks. New filings for unemployment in California topped a million for the week ending March 28, eclipsing the previous record of 115,000 claims before the COVID-19 outbreak. Initial claims “eased” somewhat to 918,000 in the week ending April 4 and to 661,000 for the week of April 11. According to EDC’s survey of businesses, 388 employers plan to eliminate 14,844 jobs; nearly 69 percent of their workforce. Nearly all expect those reductions to happen immediately or within the next 30 days.

Compared to a year ago, San Diego added 13,000 new payroll jobs or 0.9 percent. Year-over-year employment gains in San Diego are consistent with, both, the state and national employment growth rates of 0.9 percent and one percent, respectively.

Unexpected Immediate Impacts

Surprisingly, professional and business services and construction accounted for the bulk of job losses, shedding 3,700 and 3,400 payroll positions respectively. Similar to the national trend, government led all industry sectors in month-over-month San Diego job gains, adding 1,200.

The industries in San Diego most vulnerable to the effects of policies aimed at containing the spread of the virus include arts, entertainment, and recreation, accommodation and food services, wholesale trade, and retail. Together, these industries accounted for about one in four local jobs and $18.5 billion in salaries and wages in 2019. Given the deep roots of those industries in the local economy, the ripple effects of job losses are expected to be significant: for every 1,000 jobs lost in retail, wholesale, the arts, or food services, an estimated 500 jobs would be lost in other industries across San Diego.

Between February 2020 and March 2020, employment in these most vulnerable industries dropped by 600, or 0.2 percent. While wholesale trade, retail trade, and accommodation and food services recorded job losses, the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry reported a small gain of 100. Job cuts in these industries were concentrated in wholesale trade, which let go 1,100, or 2.3 percent, of its workers.

These reductions (0.2 percent) are less severe than both the state and national employment declines of 1.6 percent and 1.3 (0.7 unadjusted) percent, suggesting the full scale of the impacts is yet to be captured by the data. Looking at food services, for example, if San Diego experienced the same monthly decline in sales as the US (26.5 percent), we should have seen sales drop by approximately $32 million and more than 3,200 jobs lost in those industries alone. Our survey of San Diego businesses shows they anticipate even larger revenue declines than what is contained in the US retail sales report. The bottom line is that the full extent of the damage incurred by the local job market is unlikely to be revealed for at least several months.

Please remember that EDC is here to help during these extraordinarily difficult times and that we are all stronger together.

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: February 2020

By Jordan Latchford,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. Each year, the Labor Market Information Division (LMID), in cooperation with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), revises historical industry employment, labor force, and hours and earnings estimates. The revision process, also called “benchmarking,” produces updates to the data sets used to generate the monthly estimates.

This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers 2019 benchmarking updates and data from January 2020. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in January 2020, up from a revised 2.8 percent in December 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.8 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 4.3 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively
  • Between December 2019 and January 2020, total nonfarm employment decreased from 1,525,200 to 1,501,700, losing 23,500 jobs
  • Between January 2019 and January 2020, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,482,000 to 1,501,700, adding 19,700 jobs
  • Professional and business services led the year-over-year gain, adding 8,600 jobs
  • Benchmark revisions show that the region experienced slower employment growth in 2019, ending the year with 15,500 fewer jobs than originally estimated

San Diego’s Quarterly Economic Snapshot: Q4 2019

By Jordan Latchford,

Summary

Every quarter, San Diego Regional EDC analyzes key economic indicators that are important to understanding the regional economy and the region’s standing relative to the 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S. This issue covers data from Q4 2019.

As 2019 wraps up and the region continues to struggle with housing affordability, the number of annual building permits continues to decrease. In 2019, there were 8,082 building permits issued, with 3,023 single family permits and 5,059 multi-family permits. Annual building permits saw a 17.4 percent decrease from 2018 to 2019. Building permits have decreased annually since 2016.

Key findings from the snapshot:

  • San Diego’s unemployment rate continues to drop, at 2.8 percent in Q4
  • Total annual nonfarm employment increased by 34,800 jobs, or 2.3 percent from Q4 2018 to Q4 2019, led by 9,500 new jobs in the Professional and Business Services industry
  • The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities recorded the largest quarterly gain, adding 10,800 jobs, or 4.9 percent compared to Q3 2019
  • San Diego’s housing market was the second most expensive in the nation with the median home price at $655,000 in Q4, up annually by 4.6 percent
  • While annual building permits issued for 2019 were lower than 2018, Q4 2019 housing permits were greater than Q4 2018
  • San Diego saw 39 Venture Capital deals worth $655 million, primarily concentrated in the healthcare sector

READ THE FULL REPORT

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: January 2020

By Jordan Latchford,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers December 2019. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 2.8 percent in December 2019, down from a revised 2.9 percent in November 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.1 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 3.7 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively
  • Between November 2019 and December 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,538,200 to 1,540,700, adding 2,500 jobs
  • Between December 2018 and December 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,505,900 to 1,540,700, adding 34,800 jobs
  • Between December 2018 and December 2019, professional and business services led the year-over gain, adding 9,500 jobs and mostly driven by growth in professional, scientific, and technical services (up 7,500)

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: December 2019

By Jordan Latchford,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers November 2019. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

This report is sponsored by Manpower San Diego.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 2.9 percent in November, unchanged from a revised 2.9 percent in October 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.1 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively
  • Between October 2019 and November 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,536,900 to 1,546,800, adding 9,900 jobs
  • Between November 2018 and November 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,512,500 to 1,546,800, adding 34,300 jobs
  • Between November 2018 and November 2019, government led the year-over gain, adding 7,800 jobs and mostly driven by growth in local government (up 5,200)

San Diego’s Quarterly Economic Snapshot: Q3 2019

By Jordan Latchford,

Economic Snapshot header_11-2019

Summary

Every quarter San Diego Regional EDC analyzes key economic indicators that are important to understanding the regional economy and the region’s standing relative to the 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S. This issue covers data from Q3 2019.

Over half of the 24 most populous metros experience a decline in total nonfarm employment during Q3 from Q2, including San Diego. The region saw a decline of 2,200 jobs – a 0.1 percent decrease in total nonfarm employment from Q2 to Q3, primarily due to seasonal changes. On the other hand, compared to a year ago, nonfarm employment was up 30,600, or 2.1 percent.

Key findings from the snapshot:

  • San Diego’s unemployment continues to drop, at 2.7 percent in Q3
  • While there was a decrease in nonfarm employment from Q2 to Q3 2019 due to seasonal changes, annual nonfarm employment was up 30,600 jobs, or 2.1 percent compared to Q3 2018
  • San Diego’s housing market was the third most expensive in the nation, despite home prices decreasing in Q3 both quarterly and annually
  • Housing permits increased substantially year-over-year in San Diego, largely due to multi-family housing permits increasing by nearly 133 percent
  • Overall, total housing permits increased nearly 68 percent compared to a year ago
  • San Diego saw 34 VC deals worth $707 million

Median Sales

Quarterly Economic Snapshot analyzes key economic indicators that are important to understanding the regional economy and the region’s standing relative to the 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S. This releases includes data from July to September (Q3) 2019.

Read the full report

San Diego’s Economic Pulse: November 2019

By Jordan Latchford,

Each month the California Employment Development Department (EDD) releases employment data for the prior month. This edition of San Diego’s Economic Pulse covers October 2019. Check out EDC’s research bureau for more data and stats about San Diego’s economy.

This report is sponsored by Manpower San Diego.

San Diego Economic Pulse – November 2019 from San Diego Regional EDC on Vimeo.

Highlights include:

  • The region’s unemployment rate was 2.8 percent in October, up from a revised 2.7 percent in September 2019, and below the year-ago estimate of 3.2 percent
  • The region’s unemployment rate remains lower than both the state and national unemployment rates of 3.7 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively
  • Between September 2019 and October 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,516,200 to 1,525,000, adding 9,400 jobs
  • Between October 2018 and October 2019, total nonfarm employment increased from 1,495,400 to 1,525,600, adding 30,200 jobs
  • Between October 2018 and October 2019, government led the year-over gain, adding 8,200 jobs and mostly driven by growth in local government (up 5,100)