Tag: research

A note from Eduardo: Looking into the 2026 crystal ball

By Eduardo Velasquez,

An inflection point

As another year begins, I sit with my crystal ball once again to see what we can glean from the data we’ve received this past year and what implications it may have for our region’s economic growth in the year ahead.

The past year told a complex story, driven by uncertainty. On the surface, the U.S. economy performed remarkably well, achieving 4.3 percent real GDP growth in Q3 2025, representing an acceleration from a year ago. But this growth has been buoyed by unprecedented investment in AI led by a handful of companies, potentially masking deeper structural shifts beneath the surface.

The U.S. achieved this growth while creating just 584,000 jobs—roughly one-third the rate seen in the past decade. And while San Diego gained its fair share, adding 5,800 jobs through November 2025, all our job growth was principally concentrated in higher education, healthcare, and local government.

In 2026, San Diego stands at an inflection point—one where technological transformation collides with traditional economic challenges in ways we haven’t seen before.

Innovation industries are losing steam

Our region’s innovation engines—the traded clusters that have long defined San Diego’s competitive advantage—are sputtering. Cumulative job growth across aerospace, life sciences, tech, and manufacturing has plateaued or declined from pandemic-era peaks. Cleantech continues to add jobs, though it represents a smaller sliver and is also growing at a slower pace than in previous years. More concerning, it’s not just leaner firms we’re seeing, but fewer firms altogether. Firm growth across these key industries has stagnated, with only defense tech startups providing a bright spot in an otherwise sobering picture.

 

This matters because innovation industry jobs have an outsized impact on our economy, with each added job supporting another two jobs elsewhere in the economy. When these jobs contract, the ripple effects are significant.

So what’s going on? In part, it’s a tale of structural transformation. Professional, scientific, and technical service jobs, which our innovation cluster relies on, declined 3.3 percent through November 2025. Meanwhile, an additional 550,000 square feet of office space were vacated during the year, bringing total vacant space to 11.3 million square feet in a year with zero new construction. 2025 showed our region’s economy is increasingly dependent on fewer knowledge workers and thus less office space to host those workers.

Yet, investment is happening. Nationwide, construction spending toward data centers is set to eclipse that of traditional office buildings—a trend that accelerated dramatically after ChatGPT’s release. Infrastructure investments are building for servers, not people.

AI is picking up the slack, for now

Amid this disruption comes a silver lining—AI may be delivering what all new technologies promise: Productivity. Looking at inflation-adjusted average wages as a proxy for productivity growth, San Diego’s innovation industries have recovered from the pandemic. AI may be responsible for this recovery, enabling workers to do more with less. This could help explain the decline in local job postings, which fell six percent in 2025.

The question is whether this productivity boost translates into broader prosperity or simply allows companies to operate with smaller teams.

San Diego’s talent landscape reflects this uncertainty. While the value of a degree has been questioned more than perhaps any time in history, it still brings higher income and greater job security in our region. In the past decade, more than twice as many local jobs have been added that require a bachelor’s degree or higher than those requiring associate’s degrees or less. This trend accelerated in 2025, with jobs requiring bachelor’s degrees or higher outnumbering others by a factor of six.

Yet, new graduates are struggling in a job market that increasingly favors experience alongside credentials. The national unemployment rate for young college graduates stands at 4.8 percent, up more than a percentage point compared to before the pandemic.

The market signal is clear: Disruption continues to favor those with degrees and experience, even as the nature of work itself transforms.

Affordability is not a hoax; it’s an enigma

Incomes are up and people are spending their money, but they’re not happy about it. That’s because the essentials like housing, childcare, energy, and transportation continue to get more expensive—local energy prices, for instance, are up nine percent year-over-year as of November 2025.

Housing affordability remains the single biggest threat to regional prosperity. While San Diego’s median household income has increased 25 percent since 2020—a welcome development—the cost of homeownership has far outpaced these gains. The median-priced home fell slightly to $990,000 in Q3 2025, requiring a household income of $263,000 to afford the monthly mortgage payment. Even those looking to rent are facing an average monthly outlay of $2,900, which makes San Diego one of the most expensive counties to rent in the nation.

There’s a glimmer of hope: San Diego home sales increased 14 percent year-over-year in September 2025, suggesting some movement in a frozen market.

Yet meaningful housing market recovery will remain elusive until mortgage rates drop substantially enough to free homeowners locked into historically low rates or make room for significant new supply.

The year ahead

These trends—the pace and composition of job growth, AI’s impact in the demand for talent, and housing affordability—will define San Diego’s 2026.

Can we leverage regional strengths to capture new growth opportunities, particularly in defense tech where startups show momentum? Will hiring priorities shift to tap new pools of talent as employers rethink what it means to be a skilled worker? How do we make room for more housing in a region where working families are increasingly priced out, while the office is increasingly empty?

The answers aren’t in my crystal ball.

They require deliberate action through an intentional, inclusive economic development agenda. We must make sure our region—and our state—is a place that not only cultivates great ideas but also enables the realization of those ideas into solutions, products, and jobs. We must make it easier for builders to build infrastructure and easier for businesses to do business.

In 2026, EDC will work to position San Diego as the destination for defense tech investment, build pipelines to better address employers’ evolving talent needs, and identify opportunities to replace unused office with much needed housing and infrastructure for working families.

But we can only do this with and through you—our partners across industry and academia, local and state government.

Now more than ever, our goal remains constant: To maximize San Diego’s economic prosperity and global competitiveness through meaningful partnerships with our 150+ investors and regional stakeholders. We know where we are and where we need to go. Getting there in 2026 will require resolve, creativity, and bold action—together.

LGSD!

Eduardo Velasquez
Eduardo Velasquez

Vice President, Economic Development & Research

 

Explore economic trends from prior years:

More FROM EDC’s research bureau

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Study: CA’s $125B fusion energy potential could support 40K jobs, power the future

By EDC Research Bureau,

In October 2025, San Diego Regional EDC released “Catalyzing CA’s Fusion Advantage: Roadmap to Commercialization,” an interactive web report quantifying the economic impact of California’s fusion energy industry and exploring its potential to support more than 40,000 jobs and $125 billion to the state economy.

With electricity demand rising and climate targets tightening, the world is facing an impending energy crisis. These challenges, combined with grid instability and geopolitical vulnerability, have underscored the need for groundbreaking commercial technologies, as well as coordinated policy and regulatory frameworks to harness the state’s full potential.

The same process that powers the sun, fusion energy has long been considered the “holy grail” of power: A clean, safe, and virtually limitless source of baseload electricity. It offers high power density, no carbon emissions, minimal and short-lived radioactive waste, no risk of meltdown, and 24/7 reliability.

California has already begun to establish itself as a global leader in the fusion energy industry. The presence of industry titans such as General Atomics and TAE Technologies, coupled with world-leading R&D institutes like Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and UC San Diego’s fusion cluster, positions the state as one of the world’s most promising regions for fusion commercialization. These institutions also host two of the nation’s most significant fusion research facilities—General Atomics’ DIII-D, the only operational fusion user facility in the country, and LLNL’s National Ignition Facility, where the first successful ignition proved that fusion energy is possible.

“With the right support, California can lead the in the commercialization of fusion energy, capturing the economic benefits that come from it while reshaping the global energy landscape,” said Eduardo Velasquez, Sr. Director of Research and Economic Development at San Diego Regional EDC, the report’s author. “EDC’s report brings into focus the regions, firms, and talent currently driving the industry, as well as the opportunities and hurdles the state faces in scaling from fusion R&D hub to a production powerhouse.”

Informed by nearly two dozen executive interviews with fusion business leaders, academia, and local governance, the report—available at fusionCA.org—dives deep into current industry strengths, future growth scenarios, and policy recommendations needed to drive industry competitiveness in California.

KEY FINDINGS

  • California leads the nation in fusion energy development. The state boasts 16 core fusion companies—more than one-third of all U.S.-based fusion companies—and has captured more than $2.2 billion in cumulative private and public funding since tracking began.
  • The fusion industry already generates significant economic impact—with even more high-growth potential. Currently, fusion energy accounts for approximately 4,700 jobs across California and generates $1.4 billion in annual economic output. The industry has the potential to grow to between $48 billion and $125 billion, depending on successful commercialization and state policy decisions.
  • California excels in research but faces commercialization challenges. The state’s world-class universities, national laboratories, and private investment ecosystem position California as the global leader in fusion R&D. However, barriers such as regulatory uncertainty, high land costs, grid interconnection delays, and lack of fusion-specific policy frameworks threaten California’s ability to retain companies as they transition from R&D to commercial deployment.
  • Maintaining fusion leadership requires strategic policy measures and state support. Success depends on recognizing fusion as ‘clean energy’ under state law, establishing clear regulatory pathways, preparing appropriate sites for establishing commercial research centers and fusion energy plants, and creating coordinated policy support. Without decisive action, California risks losing fusion companies to other states offering more favorable commercialization conditions.

“As a leader in climate resilience, California has been at the cutting edge of energy transition strategies and innovation for decades. Now, as fusion presents such clear economic opportunity, our state must build a long-term policy roadmap that prioritizes and incentivizes research, commercialization, workforce development, and investment to further position us to lead in the global energy transition,” said California Senator Catherine Blakespear, Chair of the Environmental Quality Committee.

“We’re proud to play a key role in advancing fusion energy here in San Diego while collaborating with partners such as the State of California, the City of San Diego, the Department of Energy, the University of California system, and national laboratories,” said Anantha Krishnan, senior vice president for the General Atomics Energy Group. “To realize our region and state’s full potential, California companies will need financial incentives, regulatory support, and streamlined land-zoning processes. In addition, public-private collaborations to build test facilities and train the future fusion workforce will be critical to achieving success in commercializing fusion energy.”

The report was underwritten by General Atomics, with research contributions by Boston Consulting Group and sponsorship by B3K Prosperity, LLNL, Livermore Lab Foundation, Mintz, ML Strategies, and Tokamak Energy, and unveiled at a press conference and industry reception October 9. Congressman Scott Peters, Senator Catherine Blakespear, and other leaders across the state were in attendance.

READ THE FULL REPORT

EXPLORE MORE SAN DIEGO DATA

Addressing the talent gap through inclusive innovation

By Taylor Dunne,

A regional call to action

In May, San Diego Regional EDC hosted its quarterly convening on the Inclusive Growth goal focused on skilled talent. With more than 50 leaders from private companies, educational institutions, and nonprofit organizations, the discussion focused on creative ways to grow San Diego’s innovation economy workforce. Participants engaged in critical conversation about the ways work-based learning, credit for prior experience, and new forms of education funding will help the region reach its skilled talent goal.

Within the Inclusive Growth framework, the talent goal is the only one measured in annual cohorts. Each year, EDC tracks the number of San Diegans completing a post-secondary education within six years of high school graduation. The goal is to see 20,000 newly skilled workers in San Diego each year.

Post-secondary education completions include certificates, associate’s degrees, bachelor’s degree and post-graduate degrees. The data focuses on students that completed high school in San Diego County, capturing their post-secondary completions regardless of where they went after high school graduation. The goal is driven by two factors:

  1. A thriving innovation economy and evolving technology in every sector mean that most of the jobs being added to the economy require a post-secondary degree.
  2. As San Diego’s high cost of living continues to threaten talent attraction into the region, it is crucial to ensure access to quality jobs for current residents.

For a full breakdown on the purpose of the goal, take a look at the original report.

The goal update

Of the 31,510 students that graduated from a San Diego high school in 2018, 12,850 of them had completed a post-secondary education by 2024. While we did see a one percent decrease from the last report, completions have generally remained consistent following the largest recorded increase from 2020 to 2021. We are not yet seeing the impacts of the COVID pandemic, and likely will not for another two years.

San Diego K-16 Students have sustained PSE completion rates

A double-click into degree completions

When we look one layer deeper at the students that completed a post-secondary degree by 2024, the data reveals good news for San Diego. The demographic distribution of degree-completers is generally reflective of the region’s demographics, and the areas of study are evenly distributed, with Business Administration boasting the highest portion of graduates. Nevertheless, when comparing the types of degrees conferred from 2020 to 2023, there was a decrease in bachelor’s and associate degrees and a significant increase in awards of less than two academic years. With most of the jobs being added in San Diego’s innovation economy requiring a bachelor’s degree, there is a crucial need for stackable credentials. These credentials would allow certificate holders to follow the path to a bachelor’s degree but offer the option to pause along the way while still being qualified for a good job.

The ability to move between the education system and a career is a win for everyone involved. Employers often struggle with unrealistic expectations or an inability to apply theory when hiring people from the academic system with little to no time in industry. On the student side, the cost of getting an education can be a barrier to student completion. Many people benefit from programs that are broken up into more “bite-size pieces,” allowing them to save up between sections/courses. Notably, education institutions that receive additional funding for successful student completion are able to count the same person multiple times when programs are broken up into smaller pieces. This opens the door for more funding opportunities.

Bachelor’s degree completions decrease despite that being the most in demand for new jobs

Talent is evenly distributed, opportunity is not

Despite being an epicenter for innovation and groundbreaking ideas, not all of San Diego’s residents have access to that innovation economy. Poverty disproportionately affects people of color, leading to barriers in educational attainment and the ability to compete for innovation jobs.

Additionally, shrinking high school class sizes mean that the portion of high school graduates going on to complete a post-secondary degree will need to increase for the region to meet its annual goal of 20,000 new skilled workers.

All of this is compounding to create a challenging hiring environment for employers. Even when the economy is facing higher levels of unemployment, the long-term trends around skill alignment and the need for more workers with a post-secondary education remains constant.

As mentioned before, one potential solution is for the region (and the country) to invest in more ways for learners to obtain industry-recognized degrees and credentials. Credit for prior learning or experience, dual-enrollment, and generally improved alignment across education systems become critical.

Innovation economy demographics are not reflective of regional demographics, or the workforce of tomorrow

Addressing the talent gap with strategic partnerships

During the May roundtable, a few partners were able to share how they are working to integrate the education and work journeys for participants.

  • Companies like Vertex Pharmaceuticals, in partnership with Junior Achievement of San Diego County, offer high school internship programs to support students in exploring the professional world and understanding their career aspirations before ever leaving the K-12 system.
  • The community college system is working with employers like GKN to build an apprenticeship hub the enables more earn-and-learn models without the headache that often comes with standing up a registered apprenticeship.
  • Organizations such as Family Health Centers of San Diego have been exploring loan forgiveness as a retention tool for staff, while ASML is investing in internal upskilling to support employee advancement and long-term workforce development.

Call to action

EDC cannot do this work alone. Progress on the 2030 Inclusive Growth goals is only achievable with and through the region’s employers scaling innovative and intentional solutions. If you want to be a part of the incredible group of organizations that are carrying the torch to 2030, EDC invites you to endorse the goals, use data tools like our talent dashboard and the progress reports to tell San Diego’s story, and share with us how you are driving progress toward an Inclusive San Diego.

Also: EDC and Junior Achievement are surveying businesses to understand the benefits of hosting interns. If your San Diego company has recently hosted an intern, please share your insight.

Taylor Dunne
Taylor Dunne

Director, Talent Initiatives

More on inclusive growth

EDC analysis: Midway Rising set to generate $285M local economic impact

By San Diego Regional EDC,

New analysis quantifies jobs, housing, other economic impacts for forthcoming Sports Arena redevelopment

A new analysis commissioned by Midway Rising and authored by San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation (EDC) quantifies the projected economic and fiscal impacts of the Midway Rising redevelopment, which would revitalize nearly 50 acres of City-owned land in San Diego’s Midway/Sports Arena neighborhood.

With the addition of thousands of market-rate and designated affordable housing units, an entertainment district centered around a 16,000-seat facility, and a highly-amenitized urban park, EDC estimates Midway Rising will have a $285 million direct annual economic impact, equivalent to hosting another San Diego Comic-Con.

“This project is more than just a redevelopment—it’s a long-term investment in San Diego’s future,” said Mark Cafferty, President & CEO of San Diego Regional EDC. “As our region and state grapple with a dire affordability crisis, Midway Rising promises meaningful and accessible housing options, as well as a world-class tourism and entertainment hub that will add jobs. This is exactly the type of bold, private economic investment San Diego demands.”

Midway Rising’s more than $3.9 billion redevelopment will remake the nearly 60-year-old, City-owned Sports Arena facility and surrounding parking lot in the Midway neighborhood, and includes 4,250 new homes, a new 16,000-seat arena, and 130,000 square feet of retail space.

The EDC analysis also revealed other economic impacts to the City and neighborhood, including:

  • 172% increase in housing stock in the Midway neighborhood.
  • The building of 2,000 deed-restricted affordable homes below 80 percent Area Median Income, which is the single-largest affordable housing project in California’s history.
  • The staffing of 3,100 permanent jobs paying 12 percent higher average wages relative to the site’s current retail mix.
  • A doubling of arena visitor spending from $160 million to $344 million annually.
  • $1.4 million in new tax revenues to the City and $3.9 million in new tax revenues to the County each year.
  • Participation in the City’s Business Cooperation Program, which reallocates the full 1 percent sales and use tax directly to the City’s General Fund.
  • Throughout the 10-year phased build-out, total construction activity is estimated to generate $3 billion in gross regional product and $94 million in tax revenues within the City of San Diego, while supporting the creation of 21,900 temporary construction jobs.

Selected by the City in late 2022, the Midway Rising team is made up of affordable housing developer Chelsea Investment Corporation, sports venue developer and operator Legends, market-rate housing developer Zephyr, and The Kroenke Group, a real estate investment company led by billionaire and professional sports team owner Stan Kroenke.

Midway Rising is anticipated to break ground in late 2026 pending City Council approval later this year.

Read the EDC analysis

The EDC assessment was commissioned by Midway Rising in Summer 2025. EDC currently does not endorse specific ballot measures or candidates. From time to time, we provide objective research on the economic impact of specific measures or proposals such as this to better inform the public and policymakers on a project’s potential economic impact. If you are interested in working with EDC on customizable research, contact us.

A note from Eduardo: San Diego’s 2025 mid-year check-in

By Eduardo Velasquez,

At the top of each year, we try to look ahead to which trends are most worth tracking for the potential impact each can have on our local economy. We began 2025 watching AI and affordability, as well as whether massive investments from both corporations and the federal government would translate into job growth.

We also began 2025 flagging that there would be many wild cards in the year ahead that could knock us off course. As we enter the second half of the year, we want to pause to take stock of what has been a very tumultuous six months, with both immediate impacts and long-term implications.

Affordability and AI

The housing affordability picture looks mostly the same as it did in January: dire. Mortgage rates have bounced around a narrow range while staying above six percent, and the median home price remains just above $1 million, translating to a monthly mortgage payment of about $5,300. This means the annual household income needed to qualify for a conventional loan is more than $260,000, which roughly 12 percent of all households in the region can afford.

AI adoption remains one of the most profound questions in workforce development. San Diego has once again been identified as a ‘star hub’ for AI capacity and adoption, predominantly as a region with high rates of firm readiness and job exposure to generative AI. Tech giants continue to race for AI dominance, which has led to eye-watering compensation packages, record valuations for chipmakers, and $70 billion announced in new federal investments for data centers and power grid upgrades.

What the cut?

Speaking of federal funding, the impact of federal investments on local job growth is more immediate. That’s because all the money that the federal government lined up to invest in re-shoring manufacturing, capacity building for semiconductors, and sustainable energy projects in the last few years has been cut off, significantly scaled back, or temporarily tied up. Oh, and don’t forget state and local public funding cuts.

It is worth noting that much of this remains to be settled as the courts figure out what the Trump administration can legally defund. Yet, much of it is already impacting San Diego’s economy.

New jobs data shows that through the first half of 2025, the region lost 4,900 jobs. This is not as bad as the first six months of 2024 but still trending in the wrong direction. June’s unemployment rate jumped to 4.9 percent (from 4.0 percent in May) as the number of people unemployed rose 14,200—the largest month-over-month increase since the pandemic lockdowns of April 2020.

Private sector job losses are even deeper, down 8,400 year-to-date. Every major sector in San Diego has shed jobs through mid-2025, with the exceptions of Healthcare and Social Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and State and Local Government.

Way too many wild cards in this deck

The pace of new policy directives from D.C. has been overwhelming. The lack of clarity as to whether these policy proposals will be implemented, or are legally enforceable, has been paralyzing. Whether it’s consumers, homebuilders, or manufacturers, the sentiment remains weak.

In San Diego, it’s not just bad vibes. The impacts are real.

The newly-created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)’s contract cancellations have started chipping away at our federal workforce, including DoD which spent $20 billion here last year. Proposals to reduce indirect costs associated with federal research grants have led to hiring freezes and layoffs in higher education and could evaporate nearly $448 million from the regional economy. The proposed cuts to NIH and NSF funding would nearly cut in half the region’s $1.1 billion that fuels the research that has led to 99 percent of drugs approved a decade ago. Congress’ latest tax law is set to increase the population of uninsured patients by 1.7 million across California and is already manifesting in workforce reductions at local hospitals, which hasn’t yet showed up in the data.

The up and down tariff threats are the top concern of local businesses that sell in global markets. As one company executive put it, retaliation from countries like China has “completely changed the growth strategy.” These impacts are felt locally in jobs losses to industries like Transportation and Warehousing (down 10 percent, year-to-date) and Retail (down almost five percent). These impacts are also felt by $1 billion less in venture capital, $500 million less in export sales, and 770 fewer employers looking to hire than a year ago in San Diego.

“If you want to go far, go together.”

There are many famous quotes about navigating uncertainty and how resilience drives success. At EDC, we often quote an African proverb: “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.”

Collaboration has often defined success in this region; it’s what makes us different.

Whether the winds change and we need to adjust our sails, or whether we fall seven times but pick ourselves up eight, let’s do it together.

As I look into my crystal ball again, I see the next six months will continue to be riddled with uncertainty and unexpected challenges. I also still see a region that is a top three Life Sciences market, a top three market for startups, has the largest concentration of military assets in the world, and the busiest land port in the Western hemisphere. So, we have a lot to build on. As your business works to navigate changing rules, reach new markets, or find talent, don’t go it alone. EDC is here to help.

Onward and upward,

Eduardo Velasquez
Eduardo Velasquez

Vice President, Economic Development & Research

More FROM EDC’s research bureau

More on inclusive growth

EDC report: Annual Inclusive Growth Progress

By San Diego Regional EDC,

Report: Gaps in accessibility challenge the region’s goals

Today, San Diego Regional EDC released its Inclusive Growth Progress Report, using the most up to date and available data (2023). With new progress and bold objectives set around increasing the number of quality jobs, skilled talent, and thriving households critical to the region’s competitiveness, the report measures San Diego’s growth and future outlook, and spotlights the greatest threats to prosperity

progress.incLUSIVesd.org

Making the business case for inclusion, EDC releases this annual report to track progress toward the region’s 2030 goals: 50,000 new quality jobs* in small businesses; 20,000 skilled workers per year; and 75,000 newly thriving households**.

Since its launch in 2017, the initiative has rallied public commitments from County, City, academic, and private sector leaders who are leveraging the Inclusive Growth framework to inform their priorities, tactics, and resource allocation. While much about the economy remains uncertain and inclusion is challenged at the national level, intentional and consistent efforts by a diverse set of regional stakeholders will be key to achieving these goals.

THE STORY BEHIND THE DATA

Halfway through the decade, the San Diego region continues to make progress towards its 2030 goals with increases in quality jobs, post-secondary education completions, and median household incomes in communities of color. Nevertheless, gaps in accessibility continue to challenge the region’s competitiveness.

In terms of quality jobs, San Diego has made immense progress towards the 2030 goal and is even projected to exceed it. However, while quality job numbers have increased, small businesses are struggling with a stagnant pace in job growth, talent acquisition, and staff retention. These challenges further the gap between small and large businesses and threaten small businesses’ ability to compete.

With many small businesses considering leaving the region due to funding and staffing challenges, it is vital that these firms have access to new markets. San Diego anchor institutions can make an immense impact by shifting just one percent of existing procurement spend to small, local, and diverse businesses.

San Diego’s innovation economy has positioned the region as a global hub for breakthrough scientific research and life-changing technological advancements. Yet, our talent shortage poses a threat to San Diego’s competitiveness and talent goal. A key issue continues to be accessibility for low-income students who make up the workforce of tomorrow but are underrepresented in today’s workforce. While Hispanic and Latino students make up almost half of San Diego’s K-12 students, only 20 percent are currently represented in the innovation economy workforce.

Furthermore, less than 40 percent of Black and Latino students from the graduating class of 2023 were considered college-ready upon graduation, which translates into less students opting into post-secondary education. This lack of preparation, coupled with the increasing requirement of a bachelor’s degree for entry level jobs, is exacerbating the talent crisis in the innovation economy. If San Diego is going to meet workforce needs and the talent goal by 2030, greater efforts must be made to enable access and opportunity for local, young, and diverse students.

With rising housing, transportation, and grocery costs, San Diego remains one of the most expensive metros in the country. While median household incomes have seen significant growth—especially in Black and Latino households—they still struggle to keep pace with rising costs. There is also a racial disparity in San Diego’s ratio of housing wealth to population share. For example, Latino households represent 27.4 percent of the population but hold only 17 percent of the region’s housing wealth.

While not at pre-pandemic numbers yet, San Diego has added 49,916 newly thriving households as of 2023, notable progress in the face of increasing affordability pressure. In order to sustain progress, housing options must be made available at more affordable price points, and housing permit activity needs to be accelerated to meet regional goals—especially for affordable and middle-income units.

Join the movement

Learn more and get involved with EDC:

Read the full report here, and all previous updates at progress.inclusiveSD.org. 

The initiative is sponsored by Bank of America, Burnham Center for Community Advancement, County of San Diego, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Prebys Foundation, SDG&E, Southwest Airlines, and TOOTRiS.

more at inclusiveSD.org

*Quality job = $23.88 per hour wage + healthcare benefits.

**Thriving household = total income covers cost of living for renter- or owner-occupied households, at $77K and $124K respectively.

A note from Eduardo: Looking into the 2025 crystal ball

By Eduardo Velasquez,

The map is not the terrain

As I return to the crystal ball in 2025, never have I seen such a wide range of possibilities. Both the national policy and technology landscapes are primed for major disruptions that could shape San Diego’s economic fortunes in more ways than we can count. While the map provides a fairly clear direction, the terrain is difficult to predict and sure to throw us off course at some point, at least temporarily.

What is certain is that we have just wrapped up what should be viewed as another solid year for the U.S. economy. The nation added 2.2 million jobs, a growth rate slightly above the average of the last 10 years. The economy expanded at an annualized growth rate of 3.1 percent, primarily driven by consumer spending, exports, business investment, and federal government spending. Inflation has continued to moderate with the price of energy and goods falling, while the price of services continues to rise.

I see the money, show me the jobs

Locally, San Diego continues to draw venture capital to fund young companies in both Tech and Life Sciences, to the tune of nearly $6 billion in 2024. The region also added jobs, but at about half the rate of the U.S. Recent job growth has been driven by locally serving industries like full service restaurants, whereas our innovation industries have shed jobs during the last 12 to 18 months. Some of this is right sizing after a pandemic fueled surge in Life Sciences. Some of it is driven by federal incentives that have led to relocation and expansion of Manufacturing jobs outside our region.

Federal funding has fueled a half trillion-dollar investment into new manufacturing facilities nationwide over the last three years. Pre-pandemic, manufacturing employment growth in San Diego outpaced both the state and nation; since then, that trend has completely reversed.

Meanwhile, there are $132 billion in federally appropriated funds for renewable energy that remain unspent. San Diego has a small but growing Cleantech cluster that continues to innovate and provide high-paying jobs.

Additionally, the private sector has more than bought into the promise of AI, with a third of the large companies looking to pour tens of millions of dollars more into the tech and build upon the positive returns on the past investments. The question here is whether San Diego can catch the wave of investment that is going into all these foundational and enabling technologies so that our region can also benefit from the growth will bring.

AI’s double-edged sword

Speaking of AI, 2025 may be the year that will truly test the hype. Yes, investment is up, way up (see last paragraph), but job postings requiring skills in developing AI have barely budged since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

Yet, the application of GenAI is seemly impacting the skills employers are looking for in new hires. Since 2019, six of the 10 fastest growing occupations in Life Sciences have been for non-scientific and non-technical roles. In Tech, seven of the 10 fastest growing occupations have been non-engineering, non-software roles. In fact, demand for software developers has fallen 80 percent during that time—the occupation that has topped job postings lists for the last decade in San Diego. Time will tell if the AI hype is real, but for now, there are fewer Tech jobs in San Diego than there were pre-pandemic and AI’s impact on the labor market is certainly a factor.

Affordability is about payments, not prices

Another factor impacting San Diego’s Tech cluster is remote work availability, which was lower in 2024 than in 2023 and lags the national average. Remote jobs outside of the region can be especially attractive considering San Diego’s high cost of living.

However, 2024 did bring some relief in terms of housing costs. Rents in San Diego grew much more slowly compared to recent year, up 2.6 percent. The median-priced home fluctuated throughout the year but ended where it began at just above $1 million. However, mortgage rates continued to rise, driving up the monthly payment on that same million-dollar home by $730. There are signs that it is less of a seller’s market: homes have not sold above asking price for most of the past 12 months and for-sale inventory is higher than it’s been in years. Still, the big variable in the housing market is whether mortgage rates can fall enough to spur owners currently locked into historically low rates to sell.

The year ahead

These trends—converting capital to job growth, harnessing AI to boost productivity, and unlocking home sales—will help define our regional economy in the year ahead. Of course, so will several other wild cards, such as looming public budget constraints, the prospect of trade wars, global conflict, and climate change impacts. Nonetheless, the goal remains the same: to maximize San Diego’s economic prosperity and global competitiveness through an inclusive economic development agenda, and doing so with and through our network of 150+ investors and regional partners.

In 2025, EDC will focus on amplifying the economic impact of large-scale, mixed-use developments to grow and retain quality jobs and deliver much needed housing. We will also work to elevate the value of our unique assets as a military economy, cross-border region, and innovation hub. We know where we are and where we want to go—getting there will certainly be a ride.

Happy new year,

Eduardo Velasquez
Eduardo Velasquez

Vice President, Economic Development & Research

 

Read 2024’s edition: Looking into the 2024 crystal ball

Read 2023’s edition: Looking into the 2023 crystal ball

More FROM EDC’s research bureau

More on inclusive growth

Study: San Diego’s $47B Manufacturing sector supports 121K jobs, a third of which are in small businesses

By EDC Research Bureau,

This week, San Diego Regional EDC released “Manufacturing in San Diego: Local Impact, Global Reach,” which quantifies the economic impact of the region’s Manufacturing sector and explores the firms, innovation clusters, and talent building and creating the goods and technologies of the future.

While federal priorities shift to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains, prioritizing the resilience and competitiveness of San Diego’s Manufacturing sector is key. In fact, over the last five years local manufacturing firm growth has outpaced that of California and the U.S. at large. The Manufacturing sector not only creates jobs and fosters innovation across key industries in our binational region, but it ensures a stable supply of essential goods and technologies.

“As is always our mission, this report aims to provide actionable insight for regional decision makers with data and guidance needed to preserve and enhance San Diego’s competitiveness in the global economy. Manufacturing is core to San Diego’s innovation identity, offering onramps to quality jobs, and will need coordinated support to sustain growth,” said Eduardo Velasquez, Sr. Director of Research & Economic Development at San Diego Regional EDC, the report’s author.

Released as part of National Manufacturing Month, the interactive web report includes a deep dive on the $47 billion Manufacturing sector, and includes company profiles, a metro-by-metro comparison, and a set of recommendations for better supporting manufacturers in a costly and highly regulated environment.

KEY report FINDINGS

  • San Diego’s Manufacturing sector is a significant part of the regional economy. There are 121,027 jobs supported by 4,429 establishments tied to the Manufacturing sector. This means that manufacturing employment accounts for nearly one in 10 private sector jobs across the region. Altogether, this amounts to a $47 billion regional economic impact annually.
  • Manufacturing jobs are high-paying and increasingly accessible. Average annual wages are more than $103,000, which is 31 percent higher than the region’s average. The proportion of manufacturing jobs not requiring higher education continues to rise, opening opportunities to a wider range of candidates.
  • Growth in the sector is driven by small businesses. More than one-third of the manufacturing workforce is employed by a small business, with fewer than 100 employees. Nearly nine in 10 manufacturers employ fewer than 50 employees.
  • Manufacturing is tied to innovation. San Diego manufacturing encompasses industry verticals from Consumer Goods and Craft Beer to Life Sciences, Technology, and Aerospace. Innovation-related industries make up 46 percent of all manufacturing employment in the region.
  • High cost of living and operational challenges hinder the sector’s growth. Success stems from companies finding unique pathways to grow and expand. However, a high cost of living, limited space, and higher operational costs in San Diego pose challenges for attracting and retaining manufacturers and their workers.

Manufacturing in San Diego is made up of world-class brands and consumer goods like Taylor Guitars, Dr. Bronner’s soaps, and Stone Brewing’s IPAs. Yet San Diego’s Manufacturing sector also has a strong tie to the region’s innovation ecosystem—producing everything from satellite navigation equipment to genome sequencers. In fact, San Diego’s innovation manufacturing employment concentration is more than double the national average.

“San Diego brings something special beyond biotech innovation—it’s the collaborative spirit and vibrant energy here that truly enhance what we create,” said David Arida, COO at Biolinq, a San Diego startup focused on developing biowearable sensor devices.

However, the region’s high cost of living, expensive and hard-to-come-by real estate, and higher operational costs pose challenges for attracting and retaining talent and manufactures alike. Even more, San Diego ranks low in ease of doing business compared to competitor regions, which can impact company decisions on where to locate or expand operations.

“As EDC’s report demonstrates, it is critical that our region commits to cultivating talent and catalyzing innovation, as well as investing in critical infrastructure and easy-to-navigate policy frameworks to better support local manufacturers. In Carlsbad, we are dedicated to strengthening our manufacturing community by fostering collaboration and ensuring businesses have the resources needed to succeed. From streamlining processes to providing access to new opportunities, we are committed to making Carlsbad a hub for innovation and sustainable growth in manufacturing,” said City of Carlsbad Mayor Keith Blackburn.

The report was sponsored by the City of Carlsbad, CMTC, County of San Diego, San Diego County Water Authority, and Walmart, and was unveiled October 30 at an industry event together with Carlsbad Mayor Keith Blackburn and San Diego City Councilmember Raul Campillo.

SEE THE FULL REPORT

LEARN MORE ABOUT MANUFACTURING IN SAN DIEGO

Plus, explore our Spotlight on Manufacturing series

About EDC

San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation (EDC) is an independently-funded economic development organization that mobilizes business, government, and civic leaders around an inclusive economic development strategy in order to connect data to decision making, maximize regional prosperity, enhance global competitiveness, and position San Diego effectively for investment and talent.

Harnessing the power of cross-border manufacturing in San Diego

By Lindsey Silvia ,

This blog post is a part of a larger series in celebration of Manufacturing Month, sharing key trends from our report on San Diego’s Manufacturing sector.

READ THE NEW REPORT

Cross-border manufacturing in San Diego has significant untapped potential. With five ports of entry, the Baja California region is one of the most accessible and lucrative for international expansion. While some companies are just beginning to explore it, many of San Diego’s most successful, innovative brands have already established a manufacturing presence in Tijuana and surrounding cities.

According to Tijuana EDC, Baja California already has 960 manufacturing facilities with plenty of room for growth. The manufacturing industry represents 65 percent of Tijuana’s GDP. Just 30 minutes to the south, manufacturing in Mexico offers cost effective products without compromising quality, backed by a steady supply of highly skilled labor.

Here are three common myths about cross-border manufacturing and how San Diego companies have been able to flourish in the binational region.

    1. The myth: Lack of infrastructure makes it more expensive to manufacture in Mexico than advertised.

      The region has made significant strides with modernizing infrastructure including upgrades to many points of entry. For example, major investments in the Otay Mesa II Port of Entry, funded primarily by the US, are set to reduce traffic congestion by up to 50 percent. This improvement will further enhance the cost efficiency of cross-border trade and manufacturing operations, making it even more attractive for San Diego companies to consider these opportunities.

      Taylor Guitars is a prime example of a San Diego company benefiting from cross-border manufacturing. Its operations in Tecate are thriving due to cultural alignment and strategic advantages. A business leader at Taylor Guitars highlights the key benefits and programs it utilizes, such as the IMMEX program, which allows temporary importation of goods that are transformed or repaired and then exported.

      “Manufacturing in both San Diego and Tecate gives Taylor Guitars a competitive advantage. Our Tecate operation allows us to produce quality guitars at accessible price points, reaching a broader audience, while our San Diego facility focuses on more specialized, premium instruments. Together, they enable us to deliver a diverse range of products without compromising on craftsmanship or innovation.”

      – Ed Granero, VP of Product Development, Taylor Guitars

    1. The myth: Mexico doesn’t offer high-quality manufacturing. 

      Many manufacturers in Tijuana work with leading global companies in high tech industries including Medical Devices, Electronics, Automotive and Aerospace. These companies require high quality and rigorous quality control measures to ensure compliance with international standards. For instance, ResMed operates a manufacturing facility in Tijuana, producing advanced medical devices like CPAP machines with stringent quality assurance protocols. Similarly, other high-tech firms like Qualcomm and Medtronic trust local partners to deliver precision-engineered products that comply with their exacting requirements.

    1. The myth: There isn’t a strong talent pipeline present in Mexico.

      The presence of high-quality manufacturing and modernized infrastructure is complemented by access to a highly capable talent pool, supported by top universities in Tijuana and advanced manufacturing capabilities in the region.

      Tijuana provides a hub for a strong pool of high-skilled workers. Baja California is home to many world class universities, 37 of which are in Tijuana. Among these include top-rated schools University of Tijuana and the Tijuana Institute of Technology, which contribute to more than 3,700 annual degrees in STEM fields. Many graduates choose to remain in the region, where they can live at a lower cost and help drive the local economic growth.

Cross-border manufacturing offers San Diego companies a powerful combination of cost efficiency, advanced capabilities, and access to world class talent. By leveraging the benefits of San Diego’s proximity and relationship with Baja California, manufacturing companies not only reduce their costs but also enhance production capabilities and increase competitiveness. As infrastructure investments continue to improve cross-border logistics, and with the support of programs like IMMEX, the future looks bright for San Diego’s cross-border manufacturing landscape.

Resources to explore cross-border trade opportunities

  • World Trade Center San Diego and its Export Specialty Center works directly with companies—free of charge—to help them expand internationally and grow in San Diego.
  • Tijuana EDC provides specialized business consulting and logistics services for companies that are considering choosing contract manufacturing in Mexico to grow.

This blog post is a part of a larger series in celebration of Manufacturing Month. Click here to look at our previous deep dive on San Diego’s strong manufacturing talent pool. To read our full analytical manufacturing report click here.

Building a bright future: The faces of San Diego Manufacturing

By Lindsey Silvia ,

This blog post is a part of a larger series in celebration of Manufacturing Month, sharing key trends from our report on San Diego’s Manufacturing sector.

READ THE full REPORT

San Diego’s Manufacturing sector is not just a cornerstone of the local economy; it also provides unique and well-paying career opportunities for San Diegans with great prospects for advancement. With an average wage of $103,000 per year, manufacturing jobs in San Diego pay 31 percent more than non-manufacturing jobs in the region on average. The industry supports approximately 100,000 jobs across a diverse array of industries including Craft Brewing, Life Sciences, Aerospace, and Tech as well as emerging fields like Cleantech.

Talent is a key driver for many manufacturers looking to setup or expand in the region. Companies are actively seeking local graduates, offering summer internships, and creating opportunities for individuals from historically underrepresented communities. This proactive approach to talent acquisition ensures that manufacturers in San Diego continue to thrive and innovate—and supports real San Diegans in building meaningful careers.

EDC sat down with a few local manufacturing experts to hear their experiences and insights. The goal is to showcase the diverse range of individuals and companies within the manufacturing sector and highlight the opportunities available to those interested in pursuing a career in this industry.

Employee spotlights: Real stories, real success

ASML: Working at the cutting edge of technology

Austin graduated with a degree in materials physics from UC San Diego in 2021 and holds a master’s in engineering from UC Irvine. After his stint in Orange County, he was determined to build a life in San Diego and returned to the area seeking a career in manufacturing. Although his education opened doors at top companies nationwide, Austin knew San Diego was home and was determined to carve his path here. With experience in research, he pivoted to manufacturing where he could see the direct impact of his work. Now working at local tech giant ASML on the New Product Introduction team, he integrates new products into the manufacturing process and ensures they meet customer expectations. Reflecting on his journey, Austin emphasized the importance of internships for gaining industry exposure and building professional networks. His connection to the San Diego community, formed during his undergraduate studies, has motivated him to pursue a career in the region. Austin is optimistic about the future of the semiconductor industry, noting its growth and increasing demand for chips driven by AI, and computing and electric vehicles.

TriLink BioTechnologies: Cultivating a culture of quality and inclusion

Jennifer is a dedicated member of the TriLink BioTechnologies team, part of the Maravai LifeSciences parent company, which helps other businesses develop and manufacture products vital for understanding genetic processes and developing biotechnological applications like vaccines and gene therapies. A graduate of UC San Diego, Jennifer started her career as a lab assistant in 2001, and over the years has taken on multiple roles leading to her current role as Associate Director for Quality Product Lifestyle, where she is dedicated to enhancing quality control within the company. Jennifer is passionate about mentoring and advancing female leadership in the Life Sciences industry, aiming to elevate women in executive roles. She values San Diego’s collaborative Life Sciences ecosystem, where companies share knowledge to develop life-saving treatments.

Dr. Bronner’s: Growing up in the culture of care

Blanca has navigated an inspiring career since joining Dr. Bronner’s in 2007. Joining the Vista-based company directly out of high school, she found her niche in manufacturing, driven by passion for the products she helps create. Over the years, Blanca has ascended through various roles, culminating in her current position as Director of Production. She cherishes the culture at Dr. Bronner’s, which prioritizes employee care and work-life balance, and she appreciates the company’s approach to challenges like the high cost of living in San Diego. Blanca’s experience as a woman in a traditionally male dominated industry has equipped her with resilience and determination, and inspired her advocacy for other women. Her passion for San Diego’s vibrant, inclusive culture mirrors her dedication to shaping manufacturing in the region.

Finding skilled talent for your manufacturing facilities

San Diego’s manufacturing sector is not only an economic force but it’s also a community of innovators and skilled technicians where professionals like Austin, Jennifer, and Blanca have built rewarding careers with opportunities for advancement. More than offering a job, this industry can provide fulfilment and a well-balanced and thriving lifestyle in the San Diego region.

If you’re a manufacturer looking for skilled talent like those profiled above, leverage these recruiting tools:

  • Develop an apprenticeship program: In partnership with Apprenti, EDC can assist companies with establishing apprenticeship programs in non-traditional fields like advanced manufacturing, information technology, cybersecurity, and more.
  • Connect with Verified Programs: To strengthen your company’s talent pipeline, EDC can connect employers with local post-secondary training programs that have been vetted and recognized for strong efforts to teach relevant curriculum and serve a diverse student body.

What’s next?

This blog post is a part of a larger series in celebration of Manufacturing Month. Click here to look at our previous deep dive on San Diego’s unique manufacturing strengths and opportunities. To read our full analytical manufacturing report click here.